Tyler Herro and Jaren Jackson Jr. headline Monday’s NBA prop bets.
The pregame narrative: Herro and Jackson draw great matchups against the New York Knicks and Sacramento Kings, respectively. I’m backing both players to clear their point totals tonight.
Check out my top NBA prop bets for March 17.
NBA prop bets
Best bet: Herro over 22.5 points (-130)
Herro is in a mini-slump, averaging 20.0 points in March on 44.7% shooting.
Since November, it’s the only month this season where he’s averaged fewer than 24.0 PPG. That helps explain this low total, which I don’t think bettors will see for much longer.
The point guard has been living right around this line even amid his current struggles:
- Herro has scored 21+ points in 5 of 8 games this month and 9 of 13 since the all-star break.
- He’s averaging 18.9 field-goal attempts since the ASG, which is 4.5 more than anyone else on the Heat.
In my opinion, Herro should blow by this total if he takes anywhere near 18.9 field goal attempts on Monday.
New York has the third-worst 3-point defence in the NBA (37.3%) and allows the sixth-most points per game to opposing point guards, according to Fantasy Pros.
Key stat: Herro had 22-plus points in both games against the Heat this year, averaging 28.0 PPG.
Best NBA picks
Jackson over 25.5 points (-108): This shapes up to be a smash spot for Jackson, who will be Memphis’ No. 1 option on Monday with Ja Morant (shoulder) sidelined.
Unsurprisingly, Jackson has produced at a much higher clip this year when the point guard sits:
- With Morant (36 games): 21.8 PPG, 15.4 FGA/game
- Without Morant (25 games): 24.0 PPG, 17.9 FGA/game
He’s 10-6 against this line when playing north of 25 minutes without Morant. Sacramento is a 3-point favourite in tonight’s contest, meaning Jackson should get plenty of run.
This is also a great matchup.
The Kings allow the second-most points and third-most 3s per game to power forwards, and JJJ scored 28 points when he last played them on Jan. 3.
NBA prop picks made at 11:40 a.m. ET on 03/17/2025.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.