The very first March Madness action of the year tips off Tuesday with a pair of First Four play-in matchups.
The pregame narrative: Can the North Carolina Tar Heels prove their doubters wrong in an 11-vs.-11 matchup? Maybe, but I still expect the San Diego State Aztecs to cover. In the earlier game, fade a pair of disastrous offences.
Check out my March Madness First Four best bets for March 18.
March Madness First Four predictions
Best Bet: St. Francis/Alabama State under 140.5 points (-125)
It’s shocking that the St. Francis Red Flash found their way into the tournament given how atrocious their offence was in the Northeast Conference championship game.
In a nails-on-the-chalkboard game that featured just 89 total points, the Red Flash shot 31.7% from the field while sinking 3-of-7 free throws.
Their offence isn’t always that bad, but it hardly sets the world on fire. According to KenPom.com, St. Francis ranks 299th out of 364 schools in offensive efficiency.
The Alabama State Hornets aren’t much better (270th), and they’ve played a ton of low-scoring games lately.
- Unders are 8-2 in Alabama State’s past 10 games.
- In that span, the average total in Alabama State games is 131.8 points.
Offensively, the Hornets attempt a lot of 3-pointers (27.2/game, 44th-most in NCAA Division I). But that lines up well for the Red Flash, who’ve allowed a 32.3 3PT% this season (92nd in D-I).
All three of St. Francis’ conference tourney games went under this total, and the Red Flash should keep that postseason streak alive on Tuesday.
Key stat: Unders are 20-12-1 this season in Alabama State matchups, per Team Rankings, which includes an 11-7 record when the Hornets are favoured.
Quick pick
San Diego State +4.5 (-110): Many college basketball pundits and casual fans were puzzled — if not incensed — to see the North Carolina Tar Heels added to the 68-team field. And I can see why.
If you wanted to spin UNC’s situation positively, you’d say the team is 8-2 in its past 10 games and both losses came against Duke.
But if you look closer, you’ll see that the Tar Heels hardly beat anyone of merit this year.
- UNC went 1-12 in Quad 1 matchups, per BartTorvik.com.
- The Tar Heels went 0-5 against the ACC’s other tourney-bound teams (Duke, Clemson, Louisville).
Maybe they’ll scratch out a win against San Diego State, but I don’t expect that to happen comfortably. The Aztecs have an elite defence, ranking first in block rate (18.5%) and sixth in eFG% (45.3).
Both KenPom and Bart Torvik project a two-point win for UNC.
March Madness upset picks made at 4:00 p.m. ET on 03/17/2025.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.