Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Giannis Antetokounmpo are the two brightest stars in Sunday’s late-night NBA showdown, and I’ve got both of them in a same-game parlay.
The pregame narrative: SGA has a solid price on an attainable assists milestone, and I expect him to hit that while leading the Oklahoma City Thunder to victory. On the Milwaukee Bucks’ side, I’m fading Giannis as a passer.
Check out my Thunder vs. Bucks SGP predictions for March 16.
Thunder vs. Bucks predictions
Parlay: Thunder ML | Gilgeous-Alexander 6+ assists | Giannis under 6.5 assists (+290)
Thunder moneyline (-190): Milwaukee coasted to a comfortable, low-scoring win when these teams met in the NBA Cup final in mid-December. But that was ages ago.
Since that game, OKC has clearly been the better team.
- OKC since Dec. 18: 35-7 record, +12.3 net rating
- Milwaukee since Dec. 18: 24-17 record, +2.7 net rating
The Thunder are 24-6 this year as road favourites, as well as 9-5 when playing on a back-to-back.
The Bucks are just 6-7 when playing on a back-to-back and should be overmatched against the Western Conference’s No. 1 squad.
NBA SGP legs
Gilgeous-Alexander 6+ assists (-157): Any high-scoring point guard that faces the Bucks has a chance to really go off. But I’m drawn to this assists prop, which I think is priced in an SGP-friendly zone.
Gilgeous-Alexander is the NBA’s leading scorer, but he knows how to take care of his teammates, too.
Look at his passing production since Feb. 12 (14 games):
- 7.1 APG
- 13.9 potential assists/game
- 6+ assists in 11 of 14
- 5+ assists in 14 of 14
When SGA last faced the Bucks in February — a 29-point win for OKC over a shorthanded Milwaukee team — he had six assists in just 22 minutes.
Giannis under 6.5 assists (-139): The Greek Freak has gone over this assist total in three straight games, but it’s still an outsized number compared to his season average (5.7 APG).
In a tough matchup like this one, the under should be the side that wins out.
OKC allows the fourth-fewest assists per game to opposing power forwards (3.82), per Betting Pros, as well as fifth-fewest assists overall.
When Giannis last faced the Thunder in Milwaukee (last March), he finished with four assists in 34 minutes.
Thunder vs. Bucks predictions made at 1:10 p.m. ET on 03/16/2025.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.