Point guards Luka Doncic and LaMelo Ball headline Sunday’s NBA prop bets.
The pregame narrative: Doncic (calf) is listed as probable after sitting on Friday and I expect him to torch the Phoenix Suns. Ball, meanwhile, has a very attainable 3-point total against the Los Angeles Clippers.
Check out my top NBA prop bets for March 16.
NBA prop bets
Best bet: Doncic over 42.5 points and rebounds (-118)
This is a massive total but Doncic is well equipped to clear it on Sunday.
The former Dallas Maverick has been balling for the Lakers and is well-rested heading into a solid matchup.
- First six games with Lakers: 19.3 PPG, 9.7 RPG, 1-5 vs. this line
- Last seven games with Lakers: 31.9 PPG, 7.7 RPG, 2-5 vs. this line
Doncic hasn’t cleared this mark regularly but is L.A.’s go-to scorer and will have increased rebounding opportunities with LeBron James, Rui Hachimura and Jaxson Hayes sidelined.
He’s recorded 12 and 11 boards in two games without LeBron while averaging 33.5 points.
The Suns allow the fifth-most rebounds and ninth-most points to PGs per game, according to Fantasy Pros, and Doncic has routinely killed the team that passed on him in the 2018 NBA Draft.
Key stat: Doncic is 8-2 against this line in his last 10 full games against the Suns, averaging 36.5 points and 8.5 rebounds.
Best NBA picks
Ball over 3.5 threes (-130): The great thing about betting on Ball’s 3-point total is you know he’s going to put up shots.
Charlotte’s point guard takes 11.5 threes per night, which would rank first in the NBA had he played enough games to qualify.
Since returning from a two-game injury absence on March 1, he’s been cashing in:
- 4.0 makes/game
- 11.1 attempts/game
- 4-3 vs. this line
The Clippers have struggled to defend the perimeter since the all-star break, giving up the eighth-most 3s per game to point guards and ranking 20th in 3-point defence (36.5%).
Ball went 7-for-11 from deep his last time out.
Russell over 5.5 assists (-154): This is an A-plus matchup for D’Angelo Russell, who has steadily contributed as a facilitator since joining the Brooklyn Nets.
The point guard is averaging 5.7 assists per game with Brooklyn and has at least four assists in nine straight games. That gives us a solid baseline to work with.
Russell cleared this mark in three of his last four and plays an Atlanta Hawks team allowing the fifth-most assists per game to opposing PGs.
The Hawks play with the second-fastest pace in the NBA while the Nets play at the slowest pace, so it’ll be interesting to see who dictates the tempo of this contest.
In their first matchup this season, Atlanta won 120-116. If that many points are put up again, I like Russell’s chances of dishing out six assists.
NBA prop picks made at 10:15 a.m. ET on 03/16/2025.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.