The Indian Wells Open semifinals are here and I have predictions for both men’s matches.
The pregame narrative: Carlos Alcaraz and Jack Draper are both in top form but I like the latter to keep the match close in a potential upset. Elsewhere, I have a pick on Daniil Medvedev over Holger Rune.
Check out my top Indian Wells predictions for the semifinal matches on Saturday, March 15.
Indian Wells predictions
Go to full Indian Wells Open betting markets.
Best Bet: Draper +1.5 sets (-121)
Draper has lost just one game all year by straight sets and it was to Alcaraz at the Australian Open back in January.
But that was after the British tennis star came into 2025 unprepared after recovering from a hip injury for the entirety of the offseason.
He sensibly retired from that contest after being down two sets but this bet would’ve lost regardless. He took the next month to prepare properly and it is paying off.
Since that match, Draper is 11-1, all on outdoor hard courts. The loss was a three-set contest with Andrey Rublev in Doha.
The 23-year-old has matched Alcaraz’s performance at this event, winning every set to this point.
This playing surface was a weakness for Draper earlier in his career but he’s turned a corner and I’m officially calling an upset alert for this match.
Key stat: Draper already has straight-set wins over No. 4 Taylor Fritz and No. 12 Ben Shelton. Alcaraz’s best win is over No. 15 Grigor Dimitrov.
Men’s semifinal tennis pick
Medvedev -2.5 games (-115): I really like Medvedev in this matchup and here’s why:
- While these two have played three times, only one match was contested on a hardcourt surface and Medvedev won that match in straight sets (covering this game’s spread).
- Rune has his worst career record on this surface (59-45). That equals a 56.7% win rate.
- Medvedev has played more games and has his best record on outdoor hardcourts (256-82). That 75.7% win rate blows Rune’s out of the water.
The Russian has been to back-to-back Indian Wells Open finals but ultimately fell short in both appearances against Alcaraz.
He wasn’t in the best form coming into the event but covered this spread in two of three victories, including his win over No. 11 Tommy Paul (6-4, 6-0).
I’m backing Medvedev to comfortably reach a third straight final.
Indian Wells predictions made at 1:34 p.m. on 03/14/25
Spencer is a true sports junkie. A graduate of the Sports Journalism program at Centennial College, he first joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2023. He is now a contributing writer. He loves finding the edge to bet on in all sports but has a deep passion for the NBA and UFC. Previous stops include Sportsnet.