From now through Sunday, all 31 conferences in NCAA Division I men’s basketball will crown their respective champions. In fact, several already have.
In the run-up to Selection Sunday, there are five high-major conferences whose tournaments have the toughest — and most exciting — roads: ACC, Big East, Big Ten, Big 12 and SEC.
Check out my NCAA basketball conference tournament predictions for the top college tourneys, which wrap up on March 15 and 16.
NCAA conference tournament predictions
The ACC might have college basketball’s top team but the conference is viewed as the weakest of the five high-majors.
As of 3 p.m. on March 11, ESPN’s Joe Lunardi only projected three ACC teams in his March Madness bracket. Each of the other high-majors had at least five.
KenPom.com also looks down on the ACC relative to the other powerhouse conferences. The ACC ranks fifth in terms of average expected net rating in D-I.
A lack of depth helps explain why the ACC tournament favourites, the Duke Blue Devils, have the shortest odds of any high-major tournament hopeful.
ACC tournament prediction
The favourites: Duke Blue Devils (-360)
The pick: Clemson Tigers (+550)
ACC tournament markets
Duke is probably going to win the ACC tournament, but if you want to fade Cooper Flagg and co., this is the best option I can think of.
- Clemson is the only ACC squad that has beaten Duke this season. The Tigers took down the Blue Devils, 77-71, at home on Feb. 8.
- The Tigers have a 46.3% minutes continuity from last year, per KenPom, which ranks 90th in D-I. Last season’s squad reached the Elite Eight as a 6-seed.
- Duke is the tallest team in D-I (based on average height), but Clemson has the size to at least hold its own. Both of the Tigers’ frontcourt starters tip the scales at 240-plus pounds.
Clemson ranks inside the top 25 in both offensive and defensive efficiency, so there’s some nice balance with this group. Also, the Tigers are 14-1 since Jan. 11 — and the lone loss came in triple overtime.
Big East tournament pick
The favourites: St. John’s Red Storm (+140)
The pick: St. John’s Red Storm (+140)
Big East tournament markets
How is St. John’s a top-10 team in the country when it ranks 252nd in effective field goal percentage?
Because the defence is just that good.
The Red Storm stays true to its name on the defensive end, swarming opponents and putting up some great metrics relative to the rest of the D-I field:
- 3rd in adjusted defensive efficiency
- 8th in block rate
- 16th in turnover rate
- 19th in FG%
Rick Pitino’s squad went 18-2 in the Big East, and its two losses came by a combined three points (both of which were on the road).
St. John’s plays some of its home games at Madison Square Garden and should feel right at home this week.
NCAA conference tournament predictions: Big Ten
The favourites: Michigan State Spartans (+250)
The pick: Michigan State Spartans (+250)
Big Ten tournament markets
Despite being the favourite, Michigan State only holds a 28.57% implied probability to win the Big Ten tournament. That’s an indicator for how deep this field is.
Still, how can you not like Sparty? The team finished the regular season on a seven-game win streak — and all seven wins came against Quad 1 foes.
I looked at the Wisconsin Badgers, who I think could be dangerous in March Madness, but they’re the 5-seed in this tourney and thus have an additional game to play. Michigan State only needs three wins to claim the conference title.
Michigan State epitomizes hustle. During conference play, the Spartans ranked first in offensive rebounding rate while allowing the lowest offensive rebound rate at the other end.
Big 12 tournament prediction
The favourites: Houston Cougars (-112)
The pick: Iowa State Cyclones (+550)
Big 12 tournament markets
Iowa State won the Big 12 tourney last year, and plenty of key pieces from that squad returned for 2024-25.
The Cyclones have 56.1% minutes continuity from last year (35th in D-I), aided by a trio of returning starters.
Their two main competitors in the conference are Houston and the Texas Tech Red Raiders. The Cyclones’ results against both squads are encouraging.
- Iowa State played Houston tough last month, trailing by two in the final five minutes before eventually falling, 68-59, on the road.
- In January, Iowa State earned an 85-84 overtime win on the road against Texas Tech.
Getting to the free-throw line is key for the Cyclones. They average 23.3 attempts (22nd in D-I) and hit their free throws at a 75.7% clip (57th).
SEC tournament best bet
The favourites: Auburn Tigers (+150)
The pick: Florida Gators (+250)
SEC tournament markets
After Auburn dropped back-to-back games to close out the regular season, I’m looking elsewhere for a less vulnerable team in conference tourney play.
Enter the Gators, who are 27-4 on the season. All four losses came against Quad 1 opponents, and three of those were on the road.
Florida’s main challengers in an absolutely loaded SEC tournament figure to be Auburn, the Alabama Crimson Tide and the Tennessee Volunteers. The Gators went 3-1 against those squads during the regular season.
Also, Florida is the only SEC team to rank in the top three in adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency during conference play.
NCAA conference tournament predictions made at 4:00 p.m. on 03/11/25.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.