The second leg of the Champions League Round of 16 takes place this week and I’ve got two bets for the action.
The pregame narrative: On Tuesday, back Robert Lewandowski to score for Barcelona against Benfica at home. After that, take the under at Emirates Stadium when Arsenal hosts PSV with a 7-1 aggregate lead.
Check out the best Champions League predictions for the Round of 16 second leg.
Champions League predictions
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Best Bet: Lewandowski to score (-114)
Lewandowski was held off the score sheet in the first leg of this matchup, which Barcelona won 1-0.
But that’s been a rarity for the Polish striker lately and I expect him to get back in the mix on Tuesday.
- Lewandowski generated 0.7 xG against Benfica in the first leg, the most of any player on either team, according to FBRef.
- He has 30 goals across 34 La Liga and Champions League appearances this season, including nine goals in nine UCL games.
- Lewandowski had scored in seven of his last nine games prior to last Wednesday’s match against Benfica.
Cracking Bruno Lage’s defence won’t be easy — Benfica has conceded the fewest goals in Liga Portugal (18) — but Barcelona should be up for the task.
Hansi Flick’s side has scored the most UCL goals per game (3.2) while generating the sixth-most xG (22.0), per FotMob.
Key stat: Lewandowski’s 1.07 xG/90 is the second-highest in the tournament.
Quick pick
Under 2.5 goals (+118): Arsenal’s main goal during Wednesday’s fixture against PSV should be to leave the pitch healthy.
The Gunners leapt out to a massive 7-1 lead on aggregate last week with Martin Odegaard bagging a brace and five of his teammates chipping in.
It was a massive overperformance, considering Arsenal only generated 1.9 xG.
PSV’s lone goal came on a penalty and I struggle to see it produce any offence at the Emirates with Mikel Arteta likely playing a hyper-defensive style.
Arsenal has conceded the fewest xG in the tournament (7.2) and had gone under this mark in four straight games across all competitions prior to last week’s drumming.
Picks made at 1:48 p.m. on 03/09/25.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.