In what could be a preview for a playoff matchup down the road, the Milwaukee Bucks face the Eastern Conference-leading Cleveland Cavaliers on Sunday night.
The pregame narrative: I’ve got my eyes on a pair of frontcourt all-stars, Giannis Antetokounmpo and Evan Mobley. I’m tailing one and fading the other in this marquee matchup.
Check out my Cavaliers vs. Bucks prop picks for March 9.
Cavaliers vs. Bucks prop picks
Best Bet: Giannis over 28.5 points (-118)
With two talented bigs in the frontcourt (Mobley, Jarrett Allen), the Cavaliers seem like they’d be a difficult team to score on in the paint.
That hasn’t been an issue for Giannis, though.
- The two-time MVP has cleaned up in recent matchups against the Cavaliers, going over the 30-point mark in six of their past seven meetings.
- As a whole this season, Giannis is averaging 30.9 points.
- He has 29+ points in 39 of 50 games.
Last night, Giannis had 37 points against the Magic, who have the No. 1 scoring defence in the NBA.
Some folks might be concerned about Giannis’ production potential on a back-to-back, but I’m not among them. The Greek Freak has done some of his very best work when playing on zero rest.
In nine back-to-backs so far, Giannis has posted 32.3 PPG — better than his standard scoring average — and cashed this bet six times.
Combining his unflappability on back-to-backs with his recent dominance against Cleveland, and this looks like a strong spot for the big man in front of a home crowd.
Keep in mind that he also tends to score more at home (32.5 PPG) than on the road (28.9).
Key stat: Since Nov. 25, 2022, Giannis has averaged 34.4 PPG in seven matchups against Cleveland. That includes 33-plus points in both games this season.
Quick pick
Mobley under 18.5 points (-118): Mobley was a perfectly justifiable addition to the all-star team this season, but he doesn’t tend to look like an all-star when he faces Giannis and the Bucks.
- The fourth-year power forward has gone under this point total in all three matchups against Milwaukee this season.
- In his career, Mobley has averaged 16.5 points vs. the Bucks. This bet is 7-3 in those games.
Giannis and Brook Lopez have a combined five all-defensive team honours over the previous five seasons. They can be tricky for bigs to navigate around.
As a group, the Bucks allow the seventh-fewest points to opposing power forwards, per Betting Pros. This is simply not a good matchup for Mobley, and he’s rarely overcome it in the past.
Picks made at 10:30 a.m. ET 03/09/2025.
Looking to get started? Sign up here.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.