Tennis is underway at Indian Wells and I have picks on all three Canadians in action on Saturday.
The pregame narrative: Felix Auger-Aliassime is primed to go deep in another tournament and that starts with a dominant win in the round of 64. I’m also backing Adam Walton to steal a set against Denis Shapovalov and taking the over when Leylah Fernandez and Jaqueline Cristian meet.
Check out my top Indian Wells Open predictions for March 8.
Indian Wells predictions
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Best Bet: Auger-Aliassime -4.5 games
If we go back to 2021, Jenson Brooksby beat Auger-Aliassime in straight sets. But that should be ignored with how these two are playing in 2025, which is what actually matters.
The Canadian comes into this tournament after a very strong start to the year. He’s won two ATP titles and fell just short of another in the finals of the Dubai Open.
Fatigue was clearly an issue for Auger-Aliassime due to playing 21 matches in two months to start the season.
It could once again be a problem deeper in this tournament but the week off must’ve felt like a month of rest for FAA.
Brooksby isn’t currently anywhere near Auger-Aliassime’s level after missing the entirety of 2024 due to an 18-month suspension for missing three drug tests.
He’s played just six matches since returning in 2025 and has a 2-4 record. He has only won six games all year and his lack of competition is alarming.
Key stat: According to matchstat.com, Brooksby has played two matches against top 50-ranked opponents in 2025 and lost both.
Fernandez best bet
Fernandez/Cristian under 20.5 games (-110): Lately, when these women win or lose, it’s been by big margins.
Between the 13 total games played by Fernandez and Cristian since the start of February, 10 have stayed under this total.
Cristian is a respectable 6-5 this year but went 5-15 on outdoor hard courts in 2024.
Backing Fernandez to win 2-0 on sets (-120) is another good bet but she’s lost two straight and can fall victim to inconsistent play.
This wager has shorter odds and covers a dominant win for either player.
Shapovalov Indian Wells Open tennis pick
Walton +1.5 sets (-110): Much like Auger-Aliassime, Shapovalov has been in top form but so has his opponent.
Walton has a 15-6 record with every game contested on outdoor hard courts. To be fair, he’s a bit of a specialist there.
Since the start of 2022, he has a 155-69 on the surface. On other surfaces, he’s 11-16 combined.
Shapovalov is much better on indoor hard courts than outdoors. He is 5-0 when playing inside and 5-4 when outside. The bright California sun should do him no favours.
I do believe he can win but dropping a set is very possible and that would be enough to cash this wager.
Tennis picks made at 2:31 p.m. on 03/07/25
Spencer is a true sports junkie. A graduate of the Sports Journalism program at Centennial College, he first joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2023. He is now a contributing writer. He loves finding the edge to bet on in all sports but has a deep passion for the NBA and UFC. Previous stops include Sportsnet.