Fresh off his 50,000-point achievement, LeBron James is at the centre of my prop picks for New York Knicks vs. Los Angeles Lakers.
The pregame narrative: LeBron has plus-money value on his 3s prop, while Knicks wing Josh Hart looks like a value play as a rebounder. I’m also buying low on Austin Reaves in his return from injury.
Check out my Knicks vs. Lakers prop picks for March 6.
Knicks vs. Lakers prop picks
Best Bet: LeBron over 2.5 threes (+102)
Luka Doncic shoots a ton of 3s, so you might think his addition to the Lakers would cut down on LeBron’s opportunities beyond the arc.
But that hasn’t been the case, at least through their first three and a half weeks together.
Doncic made his Laker debut on Feb. 10. Check out LeBron’s 3-point percentage and volume before and since then:
- Pre-Feb. 10 (46 games): 39.1 3PT%, 2.2 makes, 5.6 attempts
- Since Feb. 10 (10 games): 40.5 3PT%, 3.0 makes, 7.4 attempts
All season long, LeBron has been a plus shooter from long range. But he’s getting more looks — and better ones — now that he’s paired with an offensive assassin like Doncic.
Tonight should be a nice opportunity for both LeBron and Doncic to thrive beyond the arc.
The Knicks allow the league’s highest opponent 3PT% (37.5), and LeBron went 3-for-8 from deep when he faced them on Feb. 1.
Key stat: LeBron has three-plus 3s in eight of his past 13 games.
Quick pick
Reaves over 23.5 points/assists (-120): Reaves is just returning from a two-game injury absence, so this is likely the only time you can get him at a line this low.
Given that the Lakers are rolling right now, riding a seven-game win streak, there’s no sense rushing him back. That gives me hope that Reaves’ calf strain truly is a minor one.
- When he faced the Knicks last month, Reaves put up 27 points and six assists.
- On the season, Reaves is averaging 25.1 points/assists. He’s cashed this bet in 32 of 53 games (60.4%).
The Doncic effect has spilled over to Reaves, providing the shooting guard with a bounty of wide-open looks.
Since Doncic’s Laker debut, Reaves is averaging 4.4 attempted 3s per game that are wide open, which NBA.com denotes as shots with six-plus feet of separation.
Hart over 9.5 rebounds (+114): Last month, Hart pulled down 13 rebounds against the Anthony Davis-less Lakers. He can accomplish a lot less than that tonight and still cash this plus-money prop.
Hart is only 6-foot-4, but he plays with the heart of a 7-footer. And since Christmas Day, he’s been rebounding like a 7-footer, too.
- Over his past 30 games (since Dec. 25), Hart is averaging 11.1 rebounds.
- He has 10+ rebounds in 20 of those 30 matchups.
Mitchell Robinson, Precious Achiuwa and OG Anunoby are all questionable to play tonight, which means more of the Knicks’ rebounding production could fall on Hart’s shoulders.
Picks made at 12:20 p.m. ET 03/06/2025.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.