Two all-stars and Myles Turner make up Thursday night’s top NBA prop picks.
The pregame narrative: I’m fading New York Knicks point guard Jalen Brunson in a tough matchup and am backing Jayson Tatum on the glass vs. the Philadelphia 76ers.
Check out the best NBA prop bets for March 6.
NBA prop bets
Best bet: Brunson under 26.5 points (-127)
The Los Angeles Lakers have played eight games since the Luka Doncic trade and only two point guards have cleared 20 points on them. Kyrie Irving and LaMelo Ball.
They’ve held some solid PGs under the 20-point mark:
- Jamal Murray
- Anfernee Simons
- CJ McCollum
- James Harden
While that group might not be the level of scorer as Irving or Ball, or Brunson for that matter, Simons (19.2 PPG) is the only one of those four averaging fewer than 20 a game.
The Lakers are 13th in the NBA in defensive rating. But since the Doncic trade, Los Angeles ranks No. 1.
New York was without Karl-Anthony Towns last game but he’ll be back tonight. He averages 24.5 points a night and cuts into Brunson’s production when he’s on the court.
Per StatMuse:
- Brunson without Towns: 30.7 PPG
- Brunson with Towns: 25.5 PPG
New York’s leading scorer will almost surely flirt with this number. He has scored more than 20 points in all seven contests since the All-Star Game but has only cleared this line twice.
The Knicks are relatively healthy and well-balanced. Their starting unit is all averaging at least 14.0 points per game.
All five of them scored in double figures when these teams met in early February. Brunson was held to 17 points on 7-of-18 shooting.
Key stat: Brunson has gone under this number in 60% of his games.
Best NBA picks
Tatum 10+ boards (+123): Tatum (shoulder) was out for the Boston Celtics’ double-digit win over the Portland Trail Blazers last night and is questionable tonight.
Assuming he plays, he’ll be in a good spot against a battered Philadelphia 76ers team missing Joel Embiid and Tyrese Maxey.
Forwards have rebounded the ball well vs. the 76ers, who are generally weak on the glass. Philadelphia ranks last in the NBA in rebounding rate.
Tatum has played the Sixers three times this season, averaging 11.0 rebounds in those matchups and clearing this line twice.
Post-ASG, Boston’s star has secured double-digit boards in four of six games. His 8.8 rebounds per game represent a career-high mark.
Turner over 2.5 threes (+116): Here’s another plus-money play to close out today’s recommendations.
Three seems like a lot of 3-pointers for Turner, but consider this:
- Turner has career highs in 3-pointers made (2.2) and attempts (5.5), and he’s shooting 40% from beyond the arc for the first time.
- The Indiana Pacers centre is 6-4 against this line over his last 10 games (excluding a game he got hurt and held to six minutes).
- Since Jan. 1, he has at least two threes in 18 of 20 games while averaging 6.4 attempts.
- The Atlanta Hawks are No. 28 in the NBA in opponent 3-point percentage.
Tonight’s Pacers vs. Hawks game has a total of 246.5. There should be plenty of scoring to go around.
After taking 15 attempts from deep over his last two games, Turner should be firing it up from long range tonight.
Picks made at 11:20 a.m. ET on 03/06/2025.
Chris joined NorthStar Gaming from Covers.com where he was a publishing editor and wrote betting content. Before that, he was the sports editor at VICE Canada, worked for theScore and covered the Blue Jays for MLB.com. In addition to filling out the lineup card each day for the editorial team, Chris writes frequently himself, primarily on the NBA and MLB.