With a road trip sweep in sight, the Sacramento Kings face the Denver Nuggets on Wednesday night at Ball Arena.
The pregame narrative: Sacramento is 3-0 on its current road trip, but it’ll have to figure things out without a key player tonight. I’m backing this game’s biggest star, Nikola Jokic, in my best bet while also predicting a strong effort from Zach LaVine.
Check out my Kings vs. Nuggets prop picks for March 5.
Kings vs. Nuggets prop picks
Best Bet: Jokic over 9.5 assists (-150)
Jokic is an elite stat-stuffer who poses a triple-double threat every single night. Lately, he’s been making good on that threat more often than not.
Keep in mind that Jokic (28.9 points, 12.7 rebounds, 10.4 assists) is averaging a triple-double. As you might suspect, no one else is doing that. In fact, no one else is even close.
When the Nuggets face the Kings, Jokic usually has some compelling matchups in the paint against Domantas Sabonis. But Sabonis (hamstring) is out tonight, which should clear the way for Jokic to be even more effective.
This are Jokic’s past three assists outputs against the Kings:
- Feb. 28, 2024: 11
- Dec. 16, 2024: 13
- Jan. 23, 2025: 17
Jokic’s assist total is usually the main concern in his pursuit of a triple-double. But given that Sacramento allows the ninth-most assists to opposing centres, per Betting Pros, that shouldn’t be as much of a problem.
Over his past 28 games, Jokic has cashed this bet 20 times. He’s also landed on exactly nine assists five other times.
Key stat: Dating back to Jan. 1, Jokic is averaging 11.4 assists.
Quick pick
LaVine over 23.5 points (-130): On Monday, in his first Kings game without Sabonis, LaVine had a tidy 22 points on 8-of-12 shooting (4-of-5 from 3-point range).
Surely he could’ve accomplished more if there’d been a need, but his shot volume was curtailed by the fact that the Kings were steamrolling the Dallas Mavericks.
LaVine has 20-plus points in eight of his 11 games with Sacramento. Now he’ll face a Denver squad that allows the most PPG to opposing shooting guards (23.86).
Denver might be a championship-calibre team, but it doesn’t have a championship-calibre defence.
The Nuggets allow the eighth-most points per game (116.0) and the seventh-most 3s (13.9).
Picks made at 1:30 p.m. ET 03/05/2025.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.