In Wednesday’s NBA nightcap, the Detroit Pistons are on the road to face the Los Angeles Clippers.
The pregame narrative: Detroit is hot right now and should come away with a win as the more rested team tonight. I’m also fading one player per side — James Harden and Tim Hardaway Jr. — in this +310 parlay.
Check out my Pistons vs. Clippers SGP predictions for March 5.
Pistons vs. Clippers predictions
Parlay: Pistons ML | Harden under 30.5 points/rebounds | Hardaway under 2.5 threes (+310)
Pistons moneyline (-186): After a long and winding journey, the Clippers are back at home. They haven’t played inside Intuit Dome since Feb. 12.
The road trip, which started before the all-star break, was a disaster. L.A. went 2-6 SU (0-8 ATS), losing three times as the favourite.
Playing on a back-to-back, against a surging Pistons team, isn’t exactly a soft landing for the Clippers in their homecoming.
Detroit is 8-2 as a road favourite this year. Also, the Pistons have been playing some of the best basketball in the league over their past 15 games:
- 12-3 record
- 2nd in defensive rating
- 3rd in net rating
- +11.9 average point differential
There were some less-than-stellar opponents in that stretch, but Detroit did claim victories over the reigning-champion Celtics and these Clippers.
The 106-97 win over L.A. came on Feb. 24, with Detroit covering as a 3-point home favourite.
L.A. is 4-8 ATS when playing on zero rest this season.
SGP legs
Harden under 30.5 points/rebounds (-112): Harden had an unusually strong game as a rebounder when he last faced the Pistons, grabbing 12 boards for the first time since November.
And yet he still didn’t exceed this points/rebounds total.
I don’t expect that rebounding volume to be repeated tonight, as Detroit has the fourth-highest rebounding rate in the NBA (51.7%).
The Pistons are also tough against point guards across the board:
- 7th-fewest points allowed
- 3rd-fewest rebounds allowed
- Fewest assists allowed
Harden also doesn’t clear this line regularly. In his past 16 games, he’s averaged 26.9 PR and hit this under 13 times.
Hardaway under 2.5 threes (-175): The Pistons don’t need a huge night from Hardaway to win this game. He is, at best, the fourth scoring option for Detroit on any given night.
Hardaway is also third in the team’s pecking order for 3-point shot attempts (5.8/game), and his volume is low enough that he typically falls short of this total.
On the season, Hardaway has gone under 2.5 threes in 41 of 58 games (70.7%). That includes an 0-for-5 performance against the Clippers last month.
L.A. allows the 11th-lowest opponent 3PT% in the NBA, so it’s not like this is an enticing matchup for Hardaway to exceed expectations.
Picks made at 12:50 p.m. ET 03/05/2025.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.