With a road trip sweep in sight, the Sacramento Kings face the Denver Nuggets on Wednesday night at Ball Arena.
The pregame narrative: Sacramento is 3-0 on its current road trip, but it’ll have to figure things out without a key player tonight. I’m backing this game’s biggest star, Nikola Jokic, in my best bet while also predicting a strong effort from Zach LaVine.
Check out my Kings vs. Nuggets prop picks for March 5.
Kings vs. Nuggets prop picks
Best Bet: Jokic to record a triple-double (-110)
Jokic is a triple-double threat every single night. Lately, he’s been making good on that threat more often than not.
- From Dec. 30 onward, Jokic has a triple-double in 16 of 28 games.
- In that same span, he’s finished one assist/rebound shy of a triple-double eight times.
Keep in mind that Jokic (28.9 points, 12.7 rebounds, 10.4 assists) is averaging a triple-double. As you might suspect, no one else is doing that. In fact, no one else is even close.
When the Nuggets face the Kings, Jokic usually has some compelling matchups in the paint against Domantas Sabonis. But Sabonis (hamstring) is out tonight, which should clear the way for Jokic to be even more effective.
This are Jokic’s past three points/rebounds/assists outputs against the Kings:
- Feb. 28, 2024: 14/14/11
- Dec. 16, 2024: 20/14/13
- Jan. 23, 2025: 35/22/17
Jokic’s assist total is usually the main concern in his pursuit of a triple-double. But given that Sacramento allows the ninth-most assists to opposing centres, per Betting Pros, that shouldn’t be as much of a problem.
Key stat: Jokic has a triple-double in each of his past three matchups against the Kings.
Quick pick
LaVine over 23.5 points (-125): On Monday, in his first Kings game without Sabonis, LaVine had a tidy 22 points on 8-of-12 shooting (4-of-5 from 3-point range).
Surely he could’ve accomplished more if there’d been a need, but his shot volume was curtailed by the fact that the Kings were steamrolling the Dallas Mavericks.
LaVine has 20-plus points in eight of his 11 games with Sacramento. Now he’ll face a Denver squad that allows the most PPG to opposing shooting guards (23.86).
Denver might be a championship-calibre team, but it doesn’t have a championship-calibre defence.
The Nuggets allow the eighth-most points per game (116.0) and the seventh-most 3s (13.9).
Picks made at 11:10 a.m. ET 03/05/2025.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.