Football fans are treated to a Champions League edition of the Madrid Derby at the Bernabeu on Tuesday.
The pregame narrative: Atletico Madrid has a two-point lead over Real Madrid in the La Liga table, with a league-low two losses. I expect both teams to score in a competitive fixture with Kylian Mbappe and Julian Alvarez providing offence.
Check out my Real Madrid vs. Atletico Madrid SGP predictions for March 4.
Real Madrid vs. Atletico Madrid predictions
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Parlay: Both teams to score | Mbappe over 1.5 SOT | Alvarez over 1.5 shots (+360)
Both teams to score (-155): Atletico Madrid has been impenetrable in La Liga, conceding a league-low 16 goals with the lowest xG against (24.1), per FBRef.
Things haven’t gone quite as smoothly for Diego Simeone’s side in European play, though, with 12 goals allowed in eight UCL fixtures.
The Atleti have papered over that with a strong offence and enter this match having won five straight UCL matches:
- Atletico Madrid has scored 17 goals during its five-game winning streak.
- Both teams have scored in four of those games (BTTS is 6-2 overall in Atletico’s eight UCL matchups).
I’m confident that Atletico can score on Tuesday but am equally doubtful it will be able to keep Real Madrid off the board.
In La Liga, Los Blancos rank second in average possession (61.3%), goals per match (2.1) and xG (51.7). They’ve also scored 17 goals in their last five UCL games, with the opponent scoring in four of those.
Both La Liga fixtures between Real and Atletico this season ended in a 1-1 draw.
Other SGP legs
Mbappe over 1.5 SOT (-125): Mbappe had a slow start to the season but that feels like the distant past. Lately, the French striker looks like the superstar we’re accustomed to seeing.
- Mbappe has scored nine goals in his last nine games.
- He logged 2+ SOT in eight of those contests, and had three against Atletico Madrid on Feb. 8.
It’s in Madrid’s best interest to open this game up and play with a fast pace, as it did against Manchester City in the Round of 16 playoff.
Mbappe has a bevy of world-class playmakers trying to get him the ball, and I think he’ll have another statement game on Tuesday.
Alvarez over 1.5 shots (-175): Alvarez is thriving in his first season with Atletico.
The Argentinian national scored 19 and 17 goals, respectively, in his last two campaigns with Manchester City but was playing second fiddle to Erling Haaland.
Now, he has the reins for the Atleti and has buried 21 in 26 games across all competitions.
I’m not looking for Alvarez to score and I’m not even looking for him to put two shots on target. I just need two shot attempts for this leg to cash.
He’s done that in three straight games and has at least one shot attempt in 20 straight starts dating back to Nov. 10.
Soccer picks made at 11:00 a.m. on 03/04/25.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.