One of the biggest stops on the PGA Tour arrives with the Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill.
The latest: Scottie Scheffler won this event last year — and in 2022 — and is favoured to defend his title with +350 odds. I’m betting on Scheffler alongside Viktor Hovland and Will Zalatoris, who are long shots this week.
Check out my Arnold Palmer Invitational predictions for the PGA Tour tournament beginning on March 6.
Arnold Palmer Invitational predictions
Go to full Arnold Palmer Invitational betting markets.
Best bet: Scottie Scheffler to win (+300)
Betting on Scheffler to win at this number is unpalatable and is the reason I’m staying away from picking anyone else with relatively short odds.
But I would rather buy in on the reigning champion at +350 than miss out on his title defence altogether.
Scheffler has had a “slow” start to the season — meaning he hasn’t won anything yet. That said, he finished T3 at the Genesis Invitational and T9 at the Pebble Beach Pro-Am with a T25 at the WM Phoenix Open mixed in.
Most players would kill for a run like that.
Anyone who watches golf knows how talented Scheffler is, specifically as a ball striker. Bay Hill places a premium on that skill, which is why the Texan has had so much success here:
- Scheffler has two wins and a T4 in his last three starts at Bay Hill.
- His +3.35 average strokes gained per round at Bay Hill is 0.79 greater than Rory McIlroy, who sits in second place, according to DataGolf
Just plug your nose and ride with the No. 1 player in the world.
Key stat: Scheffler won seven PGA Tour events last year, which is the fifth-most in a single season.
Quick picks
Zalatoris to win (+4,000): I’m also keen on backing Scheffler because I can get two serious players at 40-to-1 odds or greater.
Let’s start with Zalatoris, who finished T4 at this event last year and ranks eighth in average strokes gained per round (+1.64) at Bay Hill.
The 28-year-old hasn’t been lighting the world on fire but plays his best golf at the toughest venues, which bodes well here.
Still, he’s made the cut in eight straight events with four top-20 finishes mixed in. Zalatoris has always been an elite ball striker, and I can see him winning if the putter gets hot.
Hovland to win (+5,000): Hovland was neck and neck with the likes of Scheffler and McIlroy after winning the Tour Championship in 2023.
His fall from the top has been precipitous, but I don’t think he’ll stay down for much longer.
Hovland has gained strokes on approach in six of his last seven starts, which is the Norwegian’s bread and butter. He’s still struggling around the greens, but that’s always been an issue — and Bay Hill has treated Hovland well before.
He was runner-up to Scheffler in 2022 and finished T10 here the year after that.
Golf picks made at 3:28 p.m. on 03/03/2025.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.