The red-hot Toronto Maple Leafs head to New York to battle the Rangers on Friday.
The pregame narrative: Toronto’s offence has been humming since the league returned to action following the 4 Nations Face-Off. I’m looking at Auston Matthews and Morgan Rielly to capitalize against a struggling Rangers squad.
Check out my Maple Leafs prop picks vs. the Rangers for Feb. 28.
Maple Leafs prop picks vs. Rangers
Best bet: Matthews over 3.5 shots (-130)
Matthews has been snake-bitten this month, scoring just one goal — on an empty net — across seven NHL games while going goalless in the 4 Nations Face-Off.
But it hasn’t been for lack of trying.
- Matthews has logged 4+ shots in 5 of 7 NHL games this month.
- He had four shots against Canada in the 4 Nations Final.
Toronto’s captain has cleared this line in consecutive games and was flying around during the third period and overtime against the Boston Bruins, hitting the crossbar late and providing the game-winning assist to Mitch Marner.
With Igor Shesterkin struggling (more on that later), tonight seems like a good spot for him to get off the schneid. But I’ll opt for the over on his shot total just to be safe.
The Rangers have been a horrible defensive team all season, giving up the fourth-most shots (30.41) and sixth-most chances (62.04) on a 60-minute basis, according to Natural Stat Trick.
Key stat: Matthews recorded a season-high nine shots in his lone meeting with the Rangers this season.
Quick picks
Rielly to record a point (+123): Rielly is coming off his best game of the season, factoring into each of Toronto’s four goals against the Bruins with a goal and three assists.
He’s registered a point in five of seven games this month and has a great opportunity to stay hot.
New York gives up plenty of chances and Shesterkin has been a mess lately. The Vezina-winning netminder has allowed 28 goals with an .865 save percentage across his last eight starts.
Rielly leads all Toronto skaters in ice time and should log even more minutes with Chris Tanev sidelined on Friday.
Picks made at 11:29 a.m. ET 02/28/2025.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.