Thursday’s matchup between the Denver Nuggets and Milwaukee Bucks has it all.
The pregame narrative: Both teams are rolling, with MVP winners Giannis Antetokounmpo and Nikola Jokic leading the charge. I’m teasing up Milwaukee as home underdogs and taking the under on a massively teased-up game total. Finally, bet on Jamal Murray to fill the basket.
Check out my Nuggets vs. Bucks same-game parlay predictions for Feb. 27.
Nuggets vs. Bucks predictions
Parlay: Bucks +5.5 | Under 250.5 points | Murray 20+ points (+310)
Bucks +5.5 (-200): Milwaukee has been a very streaky team this season and it looks like its about to catch a heater.
The Bucks have won four of their last five games with a three-point loss to the Houston Rockets mixed in. Overall, they’ve covered a +5.5 spread in eight of their last nine contests.
On the season, Doc Rivers’ squad is an impressive 19-9 at home.
Denver is 18-11 on the road and has won 10 of its last 11. But the Nuggets have beaten up on some bad teams in that stretch (Pelicans twice, Trail Blazers twice, Hornets twice, Suns, 76ers).
The Bucks are in a good spot to win this one outright.
SGP legs
Under 250.5 points (-345): Neither team is playing elite defence right now, but this is a huge number.
Denver has gone under this number in seven of its last 10 games with the outliers being a pair of matchups against the Portland Trail Blazers and a game against the New Orleans Pelicans.
The Nuggets averaged 140.6 points in those three games. The Bucks own the ninth-best defensive rating at home, so I can’t picture that happening again.
Milwaukee, meanwhile, has gone under this mark in nine of its last 10 games with an average of 222.3 points scored.
The under is 6-4 in the last 10 meetings between these teams — and 4-0 in the last four — with only one game exceeding 240 points (and that was back in 2020).
Murray 20+ points (-177): Targeting point guards against the Bucks has been a tried and true strategy since Damian Lillard was acquired.
Check out how the team has defended the position since the 2023-24 season, with stats provided by Fantasy Pros.
- 2023-24: 3rd-most points to PGs (25.89)
- 2024-25: Most points to PGs (26.0)
Murray has played Milwaukee twice since the Lillard acquisition. He dropped 35 points in the first outing on 13-of-22 shooting (59.1%) and had just three points in the next game — but Murray had to exit early due to shin splints while only taking five shots.
Denver’s point guard is on a nice little heater this month, averaging 24.6 PPG on 54.6% shooting. He’s scored 30-plus points in three of his last six games.
Picks made at 9:55 a.m. ET on 02/27/2025.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.