The PGA Tour heads to Florida for the Cognizant Classic at PGA National Resort.
The latest: A field without the likes of Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy isn’t the most exciting, but it means the event is wide open to pick a winner. I’m expecting Daniel Berger, Sepp Straka and Davis Thompson to have big weeks.
Check out my Cognizant Classic predictions for the PGA Tour tournament beginning on Feb. 27
Cognizant Classic predictions predictions
Go to full Cognizant Classic predictions betting markets.
Best bet: Berger to win (+2,000)
I’ve been banging the Berger drum for a while and now it’s time to cash in.
The Floridian is coming off an up-and-down season after missing all of 2023 with a back injury but seems to be all the way back.
- Berger finished T2 at the WM Phoenix Open and followed that up with a solo 12th at the Genesis Invitational.
- In those events, he gained strokes in all four major categories (putting, around the green, approach, off the tee).
Berger has historically dominated at this venue with a pair of fourth-place finishes in 2020 and ’22. He missed the cut last year but was fresh off a lengthy hiatus due to injury.
At his best, Berger is an elite iron player with a strong short game. That’ll play anywhere and is especially important at this venue, where bogeys are frequently brought into play.
Key stat: Berger’s +1.40 average strokes gained at PGA National ranks 10th among players with more than one start at this tournament.
Quick picks
Straka to win (+2,200): Straka is another player I’ve been high on.
The Austrian won the American Express in January and almost came through at the Pebble Beach Pro-Am — where I had him at +5,500 to win — taking a three-shot lead into the weekend before finishing T7.
Overall, he has five top-20 finishes in his last seven starts, buoyed by great iron play.
Straka won this event in 2022 and finished T5 the following season. He is a must-bet in my book.
Thompson to win (+3,300): If Thompson hits his irons well, he’s got a good chance of winning this event.
That’s a bold declaration, but everything else is falling into place.
In this field, Thompson ranks seventh in both SG: ARG and SG: OTT over the last three months.
The putter hasn’t been a liability and he had a strong approach week in his last start (Genesis Invitational, T13). Look for him to build off of that.
Golf picks made at 1:46 p.m. on 02/25/2025.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.