I’m bullish on the Denver Nuggets as they take on an Indiana Pacers team playing its second game in as many nights.
The pregame narrative: Indiana beat the Los Angeles Clippers on Sunday but its ATS record with no rest is partially why I’m backing Denver to cover an alt line. Prop bets on Nikola Jokic and Aaron Gordon round out this +320 SGP.
Check out my Nuggets vs. Pacers same-game parlay predictions for Feb. 24.
Nuggets vs. Pacers predictions
Parlay: Nuggets -2.5 | Jokic 12+ rebounds | Gordon over 13.5 points (+320)
Nuggets -2.5 (-167): Denver’s nine-game winning streak ended on Saturday but I expect it to rebound tonight.
The Nuggets have been one of the best team’s in basketball since the New Year, posting a 19-7 record with a +8.6 net rating (third). I have to give the Pacers their flowers, too, as they’re 16-5 with a +5.9 net rating (sixth) in the same span.
But Indiana has struggled mightily on back-to-backs this season with a 2-6 ATS record and -8.8 average margin of defeat.
Denver has won and covered a -2.5 spread in eight straight games against Indiana.
SGP legs
Jokic 12+ rebounds (-190): Jokic is averaging 12.7 rebounds per game, which ranks third in the NBA and is the second-highest mark of his career outside his 2021-22 MVP season (13.8).
So all I’m asking of the Serbian superstar is an average performance in an above-average matchup.
The Pacers are 27th in rebounding rate (48.5%) and give up the sixth-most rebounds per game to opposing centres (15.9), according to Fantasy Pros.
Indiana has no seven footers in the starting lineup with Myles Turner being the only player standing above 6-foot-8. Jokic has cleared this mark in three straight games and should feast on Monday.
Gordon over 13.5 points (-117): Gordon has made a career out of abusing the dunker’s spot and tonight should be no different.
The high-flying power forward draws a dream matchup against the Pacers:
- Indiana allows the fifth-most PPG in the paint (50.4), per Team Rankings.
- It also allows the fourth-most PPG to opposing power forwards.
- Gordon has scored 18+ points in three straight matchups with Indiana.
The 29-year-old has cleared this mark in both games coming out of the all-star break, dropping 18 and 24 points while shooting above 60.0% from the field in each game.
Picks made at 9:00 a.m. ET on 02/24/2025.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.