Looking to snap a losing skid, the Portland Trail Blazers host the Charlotte Hornets on Saturday night in the NBA’s final matchup of the evening.
The pregame narrative: Nick Smith Jr. had a rough shooting night when he last faced Portland, and I’m skeptical he’ll have many opportunities to flip the script tonight. I’m fading Smith and Deni Avdija while backing Portland to win in a +400 SGP.
Check out my Hornets vs. Trail Blazers same-game parlay predictions for Feb. 22.
Hornets vs. Trail Blazers predictions
Parlay: Trail Blazers ML | Smith under 2.5 threes | Avdija under 6.5 rebounds (+350)
Trail Blazers moneyline (-200): Portland is on a four-game losing streak, but all four of those losses came against reputable teams in the playoff picture (Timberwolves, Nuggets twice, Lakers).
Charlotte is not even close to that calibre, with a 14-40 record and a Cooper-Flagg-sized lottery dream.
Prior to its four-game skid, Portland had rattled off a 10-1 stretch in which all 10 wins came as the underdog. Even a play-in spot is a long shot at this point, but at least the Blazers are putting up a fight.
Portland is 4-1 against Charlotte since the start of the 2022-23 season. That includes a 102-97 win for the Blazers in Charlotte last month.
The Hornets are 5-20 on the road with an unsightly -7.6 net rating (26th in the NBA).
SGP legs
Smith under 2.5 threes (-154): If Smith was going to go over 2.5 threes against the Blazers, he needed to do it last time out when both LaMelo Ball and Miles Bridges were out.
Instead, he turned in a 2-for-10 performance from beyond the arc to fall short.
Ball and Bridges combine to average 18.9 attempted 3s per game, so having them back in the lineup tonight should really cut down on Smith’s chances.
And it’s not like Portland is a plus matchup for 3-point shooters, anyway. The Blazers allow the sixth-fewest makes (12.8/game) and the third-fewest attempts (35.3/game).
Avdija under 6.5 rebounds (-118): Deandre Ayton is out tonight, but the Blazers still have enough size in their rotation that I just can’t get behind Avdija at this rebound number.
Led by 7-foot-2 centre Donovan Clingan, the Blazers have plenty of size in the frontcourt. Robert Williams just came back from injury, too, while Toumani Camara has at least five rebounds in 12 of his past 13 games.
There are simply too many mouths to feed on the glass, and Avdija isn’t asserting himself.
- In his past nine matchups, Avdija has averaged 4.9 rebounds. He’s cashed this under in 8/9 games in that span.
- Avdija had five rebounds vs. Charlotte on Jan. 24, and that was with both Ayton and Williams out.
On the season, Avdija has hit this under in 34 of 53 games (64.2%).
Picks made at 1:30 p.m. ET on 02/22/2025.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.