Cooper Flagg and the No. 3 Duke Blue Devils hit the road on Monday to face the Virginia Cavaliers.
The pregame narrative: In what should be a lopsided ACC matchup, I like the over to cash in Charlottesville. I’ve also made prop bet predictions on Flagg and UVA’s Isaac McKneely.
Check out my Duke vs. Virginia picks for the men’s college basketball matchup on Feb. 17.
Duke vs. Virginia picks
Go to full college basketball betting markets.
Best Bet: Over 132.5 points (-117)
Betting the over in a Virginia game? It doesn’t feel right, but it’s where I’m landing with my best bet.
For years, the Tony Bennett-led Cavaliers played at a methodical, molasses-like pace and generated some of the lowest scores in NCAA Division I.
Bennett is now retired, but his successor, Ron Sanchez, has taken up the same mantle. Virginia plays at the third-slowest adjusted tempo in D-I, per KenPom.com.
Unsurprisingly, this is the lowest projected total in a Duke game this year. And I think there are some compelling reasons to side with the over:
- Five ACC schools, including Virginia, are among the 60 slowest in adjusted tempo. Duke has already faced the other four and hit the over each time.
- The Blue Devils have gone over 132.5 points in 19/25 games.
- The Cavaliers have gone over 132.5 points in 8/11 games since Jan. 8.
One key driver for offence will be Virginia’s ability to hit 3s. Duke has the No. 1 defence against 2-point shots (42.4 FG% allowed), so the interior will likely be a no-fly zone.
The Cavaliers are on fire beyond the arc right now, shooting 41.9% from deep in their past eight games.
Key stat: Overs are 4-0 in Virginia’s past four home games. The average total in those games was 137.0 points.
Quick picks
Flagg 30+ points/rebounds/assists (-132): This line is lower than usual for Flagg, which makes sense because of the risk that Virginia turns the game into a slog.
But I like the over on the game total, and I expect Flagg to play a major role.
The Naismith College Player of the Year frontrunner averages 19.8 points, 7.5 rebounds and 4.0 assists (31.3 PRA). He’s cashed this bet in 10 of his past 13 games.
Flagg is a three-level scorer with a nose for the free-throw line. But I also expect some solid work on the glass.
Virginia ranks 338th in offensive rebounding rate (23.9%), which should mean plenty of chances for Flagg when the Cavs come up short on shot attempts.
McKneely 3+ threes (+110): I really like this price for the top 3-point shooter in the ACC.
McKneely paces the conference with a 41.7% shooting clip beyond the arc. He’s averaging 3.1 makes on 7.5 attempts.
Oh, and he happens to be on fire from deep right now. Look at his past seven games:
- 43.5 3PT%
- 9.9 attempted threes
- 3+ threes in 5/7 games
Picks made at 10:35 a.m. ET on 02/17/2025.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.