The spiralling Atlanta Hawks host the Milwaukee Bucks on Friday night in their first matchup coming out of the trade deadline.
The pregame narrative: Atlanta is 1-9 in its past 10 games and became a modest seller at the deadline. With some moving pieces on both sides, I kept this SGP simple by backing Trae Young and Giannis Antetokounmpo in a +270 ticket.
Check out my Bucks vs. Hawks same-game parlay predictions for Feb. 7.
Bucks vs. Hawks predictions
Parlay: Under 247.5 points | Young 25+ points | Giannis 45+ points/rebounds/assists (+270)
Under 247.5 points (-177): Atlanta has the NBA’s highest overs rate at home (16-7-0, 69.6%), per Team Rankings. But for a number this high, I still prefer the under.
- This under is 8-2 in Atlanta’s past 10 home games.
- The Bucks and Hawks combined for 223 and 212 points, respectively, in their two previous matchups this season (both in Milwaukee).
It just so happens that Milwaukee went over this total twice last week, but that looks like a total fluke. The Bucks have finished under 248.5 points in 46 of 49 games on the year.
Both teams were active at the trade deadline with multiple moves. If anything, I think the potential chemistry disruption of reshuffled rosters will have a greater effect on offence than defence.
SGP legs
Young 25+ points (-180): Even with an alt under in place, I love this number (and this matchup) for Young.
- Milwaukee allows the most PPG to opposing point guards (26.8), per Betting Pros.
- Young is averaging 25.5 PPG over his past 20 games.
Young is off to a scorching start in February, notching three straight games of 30-plus points.
And when he last faced the Bucks on Dec. 14, Young dropped 35 while shooting 50.0% from the floor.
Giannis 45+ PRA (-360): The only thing stopping Giannis right now is some calf tightness. But when he’s on the floor, he’s bound to put up big numbers.
The Greek Freak is questionable tonight after missing back-to-back games. Prior to that, he was on a mesmerizing heater:
- 30+ points in 7/8 games
- 11+ rebounds in 19 straight games
- 45+ PRA in 10/13 games
Atlanta allows the seventh-most points to opposing power forwards, but Giannis’ sky-high floor as a rebounder is something I want to tap into as well.
With this alt PRA line, you can back Giannis at a number he’s cleared in both matchups against the Hawks this season.
Picks made at 10:00 a.m. ET 02/07/2025
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.