Dricus Du Plessis and Sean Strickland meet for a second time, again with the middleweight belt on the line.
The pre-fight narrative: Du Plessis won the first meeting via split decision at UFC 297 in Toronto just over a year ago. I expect fireworks in the main event and am betting on a finish at plus money. In the prelims, back Colby Thicknesse to make his UFC debut in style.
Check out my UFC 312 predictions for the Feb. 8 event in Sydney, Australia.
UFC 312 predictions overview
Click link to add selection to betslip. Note: Lines have changed/market no longer available if grey.
| UFC 312 predictions | Odds | Bet now ⬇️ |
| Du Plessis vs. Strickland to not go the distance | +133 | Add to betslip |
| Colby Thicknesse to win | +295 | Add to betslip |
UFC picks made at 1:30 p.m. ET on 02/06/25.
Go to full UFC 312 betting markets.
UFC 312 predictions
Best Bet: Du Plessis vs. Strickland to not go the distance (+133)
Torontonians were treated to a show when Du Plessis and Strickland first touched gloves.
Five closely contested rounds resulted in Du Plessis winning by a split decision, ending the South African’s three-fight finish streak.
I doubt Du Plessis cared, though, as he ascended the middleweight division for the first time. He also was somewhat lucky to get to the judge’s table after absorbing a whopping 157 significant strikes to the head, per UFC.com.
Strickland lacks elite finishing power but certainly gets his licks in. There’s an off-chance the American can finish Du Plessis, whose last loss was via KO way back in 2018.
But I’m more keyed on Du Plessis winning via finish. You can bet on that at +205 but I’ll opt for a little more safety by taking the fight to not go the distance.
The South African is on a 10-fight win streak and eight of those have come via finish (five KOs, three submissions). He most recently submitted MMA legend Israel Adesanya with a neck crank at UFC 305.
Strickland’s takedown defence was shaky in the first meeting — Du Plessis landed six on him at UFC 297 — and I’m bullish on Du Plessis’ submission game.
This seems like a good spot for the champion to make a statement.
Key stat: Du Plessis has fought 24 times and only two of those fights have gone to decision.
Quick pick
Thicknesse to win (+295): Ilia Topuria, the current UFC featherweight champion, put his family’s name on the map with a pristine 16-0 record.
Now his older brother, Aleksandre, is in the promotion and looking for blood.
“The El Conquistador” owns a 5-1 MMA record and has won three straight fights via first-round finish. So why am I fading him?
Well, Aleksandre has only fought three times since 2015 and I feel his odds are largely hype-driven.
His opponent, Thicknesse, is a perfect 7-0 with an exceptional ground game. The Australian went 3-0 in 2024 and won his last two fights via first-round finish (ground and pound, rear-naked choke).
He’s in form, is fighting at home, and is teammates with Alexander Volkanovski.
There isn’t a ton of tape on either of these guys, so I’ll take the plunge with Thicknesse at monster +295 odds.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.