The Toronto Maple Leafs take on the Seattle Kraken on Thursday night.
The pregame narrative: Toronto rolled through the prairies with a pair of wins against the Edmonton Oilers and Calgary Flames. I expect the Leafs’ offence to stay hot behind Auston Matthews and Matthew Knies.
Check out my Maple Leafs props vs. Kraken for Feb. 6.
Maple Leafs props vs. Kraken
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Best bet: Matthews anytime goalscorer (-114)
Matthews is scoreless in his last four but I can’t see that going on for much longer.
Toronto’s captain had 17 shots in those games and was dominant against the Flames and Oilers. He racked up five assists against his Canadian rivals while generating 1.52 expected goals, the most of any Leaf, according to Natural Stat Trick.
Before his little dry spell, Matthews had scored in five straight games and eight of his last 10.
With Mitch Marner possibly returning, I love the value of this bet. But even if Marner takes another game to recover, this seems like a good price.
The Kraken are a mess defensively, ranking near the bottom of the league in several key defensive metrics:
- 30th in chances/60 (63.47)
- 26th in high-danger chances/60 (11.6)
- 24th in goals/60 (3.16)
Seattle has lost four of its last five games while giving up a total of 20 goals. I expect Matthews to take advantage of a spiralling squad.
Key stat: Matthews has the NHL’s highest goals-per-game average since the start of last season (0.66).
Quick pick
Knies to record a point (-130): I’m going to keep making this bet as long as it’s around this price.
Knies has been a wrecking ball all season and is on a tear over his last five games. He has four goals and eight points in that span, cashing this bet four times.
Skating alongside Matthews (and potentially Marner) is a boon, but Knies is also receiving top power-play time.
He’s recorded a power-play point in three of his last four and goes up against a Kraken team with the 22nd-ranked penalty kill (79.19%).
Picks made at 1:50 p.m. ET on 02/06/2025.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.