The Sacramento Kings, who are trying to figure out life without De’Aaron Fox, host a struggling Orlando Magic squad tonight at Golden 1 Center.
The pregame narrative: Orlando hasn’t won a road game since Jan. 6, and I don’t expect that to change tonight. My +450 SGP includes a Kings moneyline pick, as well as prop bets on Malik Monk, Domantas Sabonis and Franz Wagner.
Check out my Magic vs. Kings same-game parlay predictions for Feb. 5.
Magic vs. Kings predictions
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Parlay: Kings ML | Monk 6+ assists | Sabonis under 14.5 rebounds | Wagner 20+ points (+450)
Kings moneyline (-210): I’m not in love with the Kings’ long-term outlook after trading away Fox, but I do think they can kick a Magic squad that is utterly down and out.
Orlando’s past 10 games have been a total disaster:
- 1-9 SU
- 1-9 ATS
- 0-7 on the road
- -16.5 net rating (30th in the NBA)
- 45.5 eFG% (30th in the NBA)
This six-game road swing cannot end soon enough for the Magic, who have to play again in Denver tomorrow night. Yikes.
Sacramento just got back from its own six-game road trip, which concluded with an underdog victory in Minnesota.
The Kings have won seven straight home games, and they should be able to light the beam tonight.
SGP legs
Monk 6+ assists (-235): Even when Fox was playing for the Kings, this was an attainable assist total for Monk. He’s averaging 5.9 assists this season.
Now that Fox is gone, Monk should assume an even greater role as a facilitator. He’s already cashing this bet on nearly a nightly basis.
- 6+ assists in 15/17 games since Dec. 28
- 7.5 APG since Dec. 28
Since the calendar flipped to 2025, Monk has led the Kings in potential assists per game (12.2), which accounts for all passes that lead directly to a shot.
If he keeps that up, only half of those potential assists have to convert for this to hit.
Sabonis under 14.5 rebounds (-108): Sabonis is a beast on the glass, I can’t deny that. And he’ll probably secure his third consecutive rebounding title this year.
But when the matchup isn’t right, I’m still going to fade him at a line this high.
Orlando allows the fewest rebounds per game to opposing centres (12.8), per Betting Pros. Part of that is because the team plays at the second-slowest pace in the NBA.
But the Magic also have the 10th-best rebounding rate (50.4%), so it’s not just about their slower style of play.
Sabonis averages 14.3 rebounds and has gone under this total in four of his past five.
Wagner 20+ points (-530): If a leg with this much juice is throwing you off, feel free to skip it. The SGP will come in priced at +325 sans-Franz, but I want Wagner involved to get this thing to +450.
Why?
Because Wagner has 20-plus points in 15 straight games — and 26 of 31 on the season.
His shooting has been atrocious lately, and that hasn’t mattered. His floor is sky-high because the Magic rely on him to shoot a ton.
Wagner is shooting 27.8% from deep (on 7.2 attempts/game) during this 15-game run of 20-point performances. Imagine what’ll happen if he turns that around.
Picks made at 11:30 a.m. ET 02/05/2025
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.