The Toronto Maple Leafs continue to roll through the prairies when they take on the Calgary Flames on Tuesday night.
The pregame narrative: Toronto’s offence looked sharp in Saturday’s 4-3 win over the Edmonton Oilers but it might be missing Mitch Marner, who didn’t practice on Monday. Even in his absence, I expect Auston Matthews to be an active shooter. The same goes for Calgary’s Jonathan Huberdeau.
Check out my Maple Leafs vs. Flames props for Feb. 4.
Maple Leafs vs. Flames props
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Best bet: Matthews over 3.5 shots (-125)
It’s looking like Matthews will be without his top playmaker on Tuesday, but I don’t think that matters too much.
He’s projected to slot alongside Matthews Knies, an elite puck retriever, and Max Domi, whose greatest strength is passing.
Marner is on a different level than both, but Matthews has done well in his absence. Check out his stats in the last 10 games without No. 16:
- 4+ shots in 9/10 games
- 5+ shots in 7/10 games
- 7+ shots in 4/10 games
The Leafs need their captain to supply offence and I expect him to be trigger-happy tonight. The quality of the chances might not be as good without Marner, but the chances will still be there.
Calgary is tied for allowing the ninth-most shots per game (29.13), according to Stat Muse.
Key stat: Matthews has 5+ shots in four of his last five games.
Quick picks
Huberdeau over 1.5 shots (-150): I made this bet on Saturday when the Flames played the Seattle Kraken and it cashed.
Huberdeau isn’t the scorer he used to be with the Florida Panthers, but he still paces the Flames with 37 points through 52 games.
The veteran centre is expected to bring offence, and this is a very modest total for him to reach.
He’s averaging 1.82 shots per game this year and has cleared this mark in eight of his last nine games.
As mentioned, Toronto is a solid matchup for this wager. The Leafs are coming off a poor defensive outing on Saturday when they gave up a whopping 48 shots to the Oilers.
Picks made at 12:30 p.m. ET on 02/04/2025.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.