The biggest party on the PGA Tour schedule has arrived with the WM Phoenix Open in Scottsdale.
The latest: Scottie Scheffler is an overwhelming favourite to win his third title in Phoenix. I say he does it, and I am also backing Nick Taylor and Tom Hoge to have strong weeks. The through line with these plays is that each player is an elite ball striker.
Check out our WM Phoenix Open picks for the PGA Tour tournament beginning on Feb. 6.
Phoenix Open picks
Go to full WM Phoenix Open betting markets.
Best bet: Scheffler to win (+280)
Scheffler made his first start of the season last week after suffering a freak hand injury on Christmas Day.
He didn’t look too rusty, though, leading the field in strokes gained: approach (+1.730) en route to a T9 finish at Pebble Beach.
This is a steep price to play for an outright winner, given that it’s a full-field event with 120 players.
But Scheffler isn’t your average player. He’s the best golfer on the planet and is coming off a nine-win season with six additional top-five finishes.
One of those was a T3 finish at the Phoenix Open, where he finished three shots behind the eventual winner, Taylor.
That was also before Scheffler made a change to a mallet putter, which spurred his legendary run.
With a week of action under his belt, I think Scheffler will get his first of many wins in 2025.
Key stat: Scheffler won this event in 2023 and 2022 and unsurprisingly laps the field in average strokes gained (+3.15), according to DataGolf.
Quick picks
Hoge top-30 finish (+138): I don’t want to make any other outright bets since I’m in on Scheffler at +280. Instead, I’ll dial in on the top 30 market for two players.
Let’s start with Hoge.
The 35-year-old has cashed this wager in three of four starts this year, thanks to elite iron play. He’s currently ninth in SG: APP (+1.110) after finishing fourth in that category last year behind only Corey Conners, Tony Finau, and Scheffler.
Hoge is also putting well, which is great to see. He has three top-30 finishes in his last five starts in Phoenix.
Taylor top-30 finish (+140): Taylor won this event last year, finished runner-up to Scheffler in 2022, and already has a win under his belt in 2025 at the Sony Open in Hawaii.
With that said, this seems like a smash play.
The Canadian is striping the ball right now, ranking eighth in SG: APP (+1.111). Taylor has typically been a strong iron player, with his Achilles heel usually being the flat stick.
But he’s picked up strokes putting in three straight events, so I’m not too worried about that.
Look for the good vibes to continue in the desert.
Golf picks made at 1:46 p.m. on 02/04/2025.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.