Saturday night’s marquee NBA matchup features the Los Angeles Lakers and New York Knicks at Madison Square Garden.
The pregame narrative: Most of my focus is on the Lakers’ backcourt, as I’m looking to fade Austin Reaves and take the over on a Max Christie prop. As for the Knicks, look for Karl-Anthony Towns to be a menace on the glass.
Check out my Lakers vs. Knicks prop picks for Feb. 1.
Lakers vs. Knicks prop picks
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Best bet: Reaves under 20.5 points (-104)
Reaves is a solid player who chips in on a nightly basis as a scorer, rebounder and passer. But in a less-than-favourable matchup, I think this line is a bit too high.
The Knicks, who sit in third in the Eastern Conference, are far from the best defensive team in the league. But they’re solid:
- 8th in points allowed/game (110.8)
- 13th in defensive rating (112.7)
Contrast that with the Washington Wizards, who Reaves saw two nights ago. The Wizards are dead-last in both opponent PPG and defensive rating … but the L.A. guard hardly capitalized. He had 17 points in 30 minutes.
Again, Reaves is a solid player, and he’s not slumping right now.
But for a guy averaging 18.2 PPG on the season, I don’t see a likely path to him going over 20.5 points on Saturday. Especially since he’s accomplished less against lesser competition in recent matchups.
So far on this East Coast swing, Reaves has 17 or fewer points against all three opponents: the Wizards, 76ers and Hornets.
Key stat: Reaves has gone under 20.5 points in 11 of his past 14 games — including six of seven road games.
Quick picks
Christie 2+ threes (-137): Part of my reasoning to fade Reaves tonight is that Christie has commandeered some of the 3-point looks that might otherwise go Reaves’ way.
Look at how Christie’s involvement with the Lakers took off last month:
- Pre-January (31 games): 22.0 minutes, 7.1 PPG, 2.6 3PA
- January (14 games): 31.4 minutes, 11.0 PPG, 5.6 3PA
The third-year guard more than doubled his 3-point shot volume last month and cashed in at a 39.2% clip.
Christie has gone over 1.5 threes in eight of his past 10 games. Now he faces a Knicks squad that allows the highest 3PT% in the league (37.7).
Towns 14+ rebounds (-118): This is one of my three favourite prop bets from around the league on Saturday, as I wrote about here.
Towns’ shooting numbers have taken a hit since his return from a thumb injury. He’s averaging 18.8 points while shooting 16.7% from 3-point range in his past five games.
Fortunately for him, tonight’s matchup looks like a good time to hang out around the rim and get paid as a board man.
Anthony Davis is out for the Lakers, which means KAT will primarily duke it out down low with Jaxson Hayes. Towns has nearly 30 pounds on Hayes, which should help.
Keep in mind that Towns averages 13.7 rebounds as it is, so this line is reasonable on an average night. In January, the Knicks’ centre averaged 14.4 RPG in 12 games.
Picks made at 10:27 a.m. ET 02/01/2025.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.