A highly anticipated Serie A match on Sunday sees AC Milan take on their intercity rivals Inter Milan.
The pregame narrative: Inter is aiming to defend the Scudetto for a second consecutive season and I expect the club to defeat battered arch-rivals AC Milan. To round out the same-game parlay, I added player props on Lautaro Martinez and Tijjani Reijnders.
Check out my AC Milan vs. Inter SGP predictions for the Milan derby on Feb. 2.
AC Milan vs. Inter predictions
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Parlay: Inter to win | Martinez over 0.5 shots on target | Reijnders over 1.5 shots (+310)
Inter to win (+100): These two rivals are trending in opposite directions and I believe there’s value in backing Inter to win.
This is a double revenge spot for the Nerazzurri, who’ve fallen twice to AC Milan this season.
The most recent clash on Jan. 6 saw Sergio Conceicao’s side recover from a 2-0 deficit. But it hasn’t been all smooth sailing since then.
Opponents — including lower-tier sides like Parma and Dinamo Zagreb — are easily creating scoring chances against Milan’s backline, which has kept just one clean sheet in its last eight overall matches.
It has sparked many reports, indicating that many of Milan’s players are unhappy with the new manager and his coaching methods.
The downturn comes at a bad time, as the club faces an Inter side that tops the league in several key attacking metrics.
- 1st in expected goals (1.97 per 90)
- 1st in shots on goal (5.8 per 90)
- 1st in big scoring chances (3.8 per 90)
- 1st in box entries (31.3 per 90)
In addition, Simone Inzaghi’s side boasts one of the strongest defences in Europe.
Against the 3-5-2 formation, opponents often find difficulty penetrating the backline led by Italian internationals Federico Dimarco and Alessandro Bastoni.
Inter has an impressive 19 clean sheets in all competitions.
SGP legs
Martinez 0.5 shots on target (-200): The Milan Derby wouldn’t be complete without Inter’s top striker balling out.
Martinez is one of the most clinical finishers in the sport and continues to prove it.
- 15 goals in all competitions this season
- Team-high 3.4 shots per 90
- Shot on target in his last 6 league matches
The Argentine striker has flourished in past derbies.
A goal here would push Martinez to double digits against AC Milan, joining an exclusive group of Inter legends Guiseppe Meazza (12) and Stefano Nyers (11).
Martinez also serves as the club’s main penalty-taker, adding further value to this prop.
Reijnders over 1.5 shots (-175): Reijnders has developed into a legit scoring threat for AC Milan.
With Rafael Leao struggling to find consistency, the Dutch international has risen to the occasion in key moments.
- Tied for team lead in goals (6)
- Averaging 2.2 shots per 90
Inter’s backline sees 66% of shot attempts from the middle, an area where Reijnders inflicts damage.
The last derby match saw the Dutchman rip four shots in the 77 minutes he was on the pitch.
Picks made at 3:12 p.m. on 01/31/25.
