I have two bets for this weekend’s Premier League slate, with one focused on the Arsenal and Manchester City rivalry.
The pregame narrative: The marquee match sees Arsenal host rivals Manchester City, and I say there’s value in backing the Gunners to win at plus-money odds. Before that, take Nottingham Forest to bounce back with a win over Brighton at home.
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EPL Matchday 24 picks
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Best Bet: Arsenal to win (+110)
Manchester City has slowly turned things around, with newly-added Omar Marmoush giving the attack a much-needed spark. But… let’s back up the hype train just a bit.
Defensive issues remain a big worry for this team.
- 8.06 xG in the last five league matches
- 26 shots allowed vs. PSG last week (4-2 loss)
Simply put, the Citizens are too slow to be effective in the counter-press, with opponents finding more success at creating scoring chances.
Arsenal doesn’t possess the same attacking punch without star winger Bukayo Saka but remains capable of exposing City’s defensive weaknesses.
A matchup advantage for the Gunners is in midfield, where they often control play with intelligent passes while baiting opponents into pressing them.
Counterattacking is not often a feature in Mikel Arteta’s game plan, but it could be a sneaky weapon in this fixture.
Arsenal have converted 30.8% of fast break shots (4-for-13). Meanwhile, City allows the fourth-most shots in transition.
In addition, the Gunners remain the only club to be unbeaten at home, with a 7-4-0 record this season.
At plus-money odds, backing Arsenal on the money line offers good value.
Key stat: Man City ranks 15th in big-scoring chances allowed (2.9 per 90).
Quick pick
Nottingham Forest draw no bet (-138): This is a bounce-back spot for Nottingham Forest to at least get a result.
The Tricky Trees saw their eight-game unbeaten streak end against a flying Bournemouth side. But the Seagulls don’t pose the same threat.
Brighton was shut out by Everton last week, registering just a single shot on target despite controlling possession.
The offence is ranked 12th in non-penalty xG (1.34 per 90) and 11th in big-scoring chances. Meanwhile, Forest is the second-best team in limiting big scoring chances.
Under Nuno Espiritu Santo, its plan in attack is to win the ball in defensive areas and create chances on the counter — something Brighton is vulnerable to.
Nuno’s side must get back on track to keep their Champions League aspirations alive. And I have trouble believing Brighton can find tons of scoring success off a staunch backline like Forest’s.
Picks made at 10:22 a.m. on 01/30/25.
