The Toronto Maple Leafs host the Minnesota Wild on Wednesday night.
The pregame narrative: Two teams in playoff position square off at Scotiabank Arena, sitting even with 62 points apiece. Bet on Auston Matthews to score a goal and Bobby McMann to record a point. I also have a fade prop on Mitch Marner’s shot total.
Check out my Maple Leafs props vs. Wild for Jan. 29.
Maple Leafs props vs. Wild
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Best bet: Marner under 2.5 shots (-150)
Marner is on pace to smash his single-season points record (99), which he set two seasons ago.
The Markham, Ontario native already has 68 points through 50 games, including 23 multi-point games.
The majority of his points come via assist, which makes sense given that he skates alongside one of the NHL’s best goalscorers.
Marner’s shooting percentage (12.8%) is his lowest mark since the COVID season, and his total shot attempts have regressed.
The Wild are a good team that pose a tough matchup for a Leafs squad that has lost back-to-back games.
Key stat: Marner has gone under 2.5 shots in nine of his last 10 games.
Quick picks
McMann over 0.5 points (-130): McMann is in the midst of a breakout season, providing a nice spark for the Maple Leafs’ offence.
He’s two goals and three points away from passing both totals from his rookie year.
Toronto head coach Craig Berube recognizes McMann’s skill and has promoted the sophomore to the No. 1 power-play unit, which operates at 21.6% success rate.
McMann’s average ice time is up nearly three minutes from last season. That’s what happens when you skate on the top line with Matthews and Marner.
The Alberta native has five points in his last five games.
Matthews anytime goalscorer (-120): Matthews has missed some time this season with two separate stints on the injured list.
He has 20 goals in 35 games this year and is on pace for 46 over an 82-game stretch. That’s not exactly the type of production we’re used to seeing from the three-time Rocket Richard winner.
This month, Matthews has returned to full form.
The sharpshooting centre has nine goals and 15 points in his last 11 games with a whopping 26.5% shooting percentage.
Matthews snapped his five-game goal streak on Saturday against Ottawa, but I believe he starts up a fresh one tonight.
Picks made at 1:50 p.m. ET on 01/29/2025.
