Victor Wembanyama is the headliner of my Wednesday NBA prop bets, featured alongside two picks from the Minnesota Timberwolves versus Phoenix Suns matchup.
The pregame narrative: Wemby always sees a high line on his steals/blocks prop, but tonight it comes with a price (and a matchup) that entices me. In Phoenix, look for Devin Booker to star and fade Julius Randle.
Check out the best NBA prop bets for Jan. 29.
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Best bet: Randle under 1.5 threes (-117)
Randle had one of the best games of his season when he last faced the Suns, amassing 35 points on 11-of-20 shooting — including a 5-of-11 clip from 3-point range.
But that was back in mid-November, and I won’t let one game overshadow the rough stretch Randle is currently on.
Here’s what Randle has accomplished beyond the arc since Jan. 4 (13 games):
- 0.8 3PM
- 4.2 3PA
- 18.5 3PT%
- 2+ threes in 1/13 games
The ex-Knick is coming off a 3-for-8 effort from deep on Monday. But that was his first time hitting over 1.5 threes in more than three weeks.
Yes, he torched the Suns when he last faced them, but they aren’t a particularly enticing matchup. Phoenix allows the 13th-lowest 3PT% and the 15th-fewest attempted 3s in the NBA.
Randle is attempting 4.7 threes per night this season, and the way he’s shooting it right now, it’s best to side with this under.
Key stat: Randle has gone under 1.5 threes in 30 of 46 games (65.2%).
Quick picks
Booker over 29.5 points/rebounds (-120): Booker has strung together a bunch of nice scoring performances recently, so getting this line for his points and rebounds total feels like gravy.
- Booker has scored 30+ points in 7/11 games since Jan. 7.
- In that span, he’s averaging 29.2 points and 4.5 rebounds.
Booker went off against the Timberwolves earlier this season, finishing with 44 points (15-of-29 shooting) and six rebounds.
Minnesota isn’t an amazing rebounding matchup overall, but the T-Wolves allow the fourth-most rebounds to opposing shooting guards (6.8), per Betting Pros.
Kevin Durant (thumb) is questionable, and his absence would only make this pick more compelling.
Wembanyama over 4.5 steals/blocks (-103): This is a Wemby-only line for steals/blocks, but I still find myself riding with the over on a semi-regular basis.
The NBA blocks leader (3.9/game) swatted nine shots when he faced the Los Angeles Clippers in November. And he chipped in three steals, too.
Wembanyama’s more recent performance against the Clips was a bit more modest (three blocks, one steal), but he’s still been very reliable against this line in recent games.
Since Dec. 15, the Defensive Player of the Year favourite has cashed this bet in 13 of 18 matchups. He’s averaging 5.7 “stocks” in that span.
The Clippers allow the sixth-most steals per game to opponents, which should help if Wemby falls a bit short on the blocks.
Picks made at 9:05 a.m. ET on 01/29/2025.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.