Let’s take a look at some Super Bowl long shot picks.
The pregame narrative: Saquon Barkley is the alpha dog on Philadelphia’s offence, but A.J. Brown has value to lead the game in scrimmage yards. I’m also betting on there to be an “Octopus” at +1,200.
Check out my Super Bowl bets below.
Super Bowl long shot picks
- Full Super Bowl Markets
- Super Bowl 59 Injury Report
- Kansas City Chiefs Team Stats
- Philadelphia Eagles Team Stats
Best bet: Brown to lead the game in scrimmage yards (+700)
Maybe the self-help book worked, or maybe Brown’s knee is finally feeling healthy. Either way, Philly’s WR1 balled out in the NFC championship game.
- 8 targets
- 6 catches
- 96 yards
- 1 touchdown
Brown was still 24 scrimmage yards behind Barkley, who rushed for 118 and added four through the air. Barkley is the obvious candidate to lead the game, and his -250 odds reflect that.
Still, I think this is worth a sprinkle.
Brown has put up 4,031 receiving yards across three seasons with the Eagles, netting out to an average of 85.7 per game.
He has a high floor as a receiver and should feel 100% with an extra week of rest.
Steve Spagnuolo’s defence is going to throw the house at slowing Philadelphia’s ground game. Will it work? We’ll have to see. But I wouldn’t be surprised if Kellen Moore has to adjust — especially if the Chiefs take an early lead — and that should start with feeding No. 11.
Brown had 96 yards against KC in the Super Bowl two years ago.
Key stat: According to RBSDM.com, Kansas City’s defence was 11th in EPA per rush and 17th in EPA per dropback.
Quick picks
There to be an Octopus — yes (+1,200): If you’re unfamiliar with an “Octopus,” it is when a player scores a touchdown and follows it up by converting the 2-point conversion.
I’m backing Jalen Hurts to find the end zone as my best Super Bowl bet. You can read about why I like that pick here.
The Tush Push has become unstoppable, and Hurts scored a hat trick of touchdowns last week. If Philadelphia were to go for two after a TD, there’s a pretty good chance Philly’s QB will be calling his own number.
Obviously, this doesn’t happen often, hence the +1,200 odds.
But according to Pro Football Reference, Hurts has accomplished this feat twice. And one of those times was against the Chiefs in Super Bowl 57.
This year, there have been nine instances of an Octopus in the NFL and Saquon Barkley had one of them.
NFL picks made at 11:54 a.m. on 01/28/25.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.