I’m keying on tonight’s matchup between the Milwaukee Bucks and Portland Trail Blazers for two of my three prop bets.
The pregame narrative: Giannis Antetokounmpo is a walking, breathing 30-piece these days. I expect another nice scoring output from him tonight. Portland’s Toumani Camara also has my attention — as does Amen Thompson in the early slate.
Check out the best NBA prop bets for Jan. 28.
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Best bet: Giannis over 31.5 points (-130)
Giannis is on an impressively consistent run of hitting the 30-point threshold. In a plus matchup, I like his chances of doing just a little bit more.
Let’s start by highlighting what the Greek Freak has accomplished over his past 20 games, dating back to Dec. 4:
- 30.5 PPG
- 30+ points in 14/20 games
- 59.3 FG%
- 11.0 FTA
The NBA MVP race looks like a two-man competition with Giannis as an outsider, but the two-time award winner is still putting on quite a show leading up to the all-star break.
Now he’ll face the Portland Trail Blazers, who’ve struggled on defence throughout the season:
- 26th in defensive rating
- 23rd in opponent FG%
- 23rd in opponent FTA
- 22nd in opponent PPG
Giannis landed on exactly 31 points when he faced Portland earlier this month in a game where he went 3-for-4 from the free throw line.
Given that the Blazers allow more free throw attempts than most teams — and Giannis averages 11.0 FTA alone — any uptick in that regard should boost his overall scoring potential.
Key stat: Giannis has cashed this bet in 10 of his past 18 games.
Quick picks
Camara over 17.5 points/rebounds (-118): Coming off his best game of the season, and facing a team he’s performed well against recently, I really like this over for Camara.
You might not have heard of Camara, a second-year pro who was one of the final picks of the 2023 draft. But he’s been a starter for the Portland Trail Blazers all year, filling the role of an undersized but athletic big who can shoot.
Two nights ago, Camara went 5-for-5 from deep as part of a 24-point, nine-rebound performance. He’s now cashed this bet in three of his past five games.
And earlier this month (Jan. 4), Camara had 15 points and six rebounds against the Milwaukee Bucks. That’s who he’ll see tonight, and he should remain prominently involved.
Thompson over 28.5 points/rebounds (-120): I’m willing to be a prisoner of the moment with Thompson. Because he’s having quite a moment.
On Monday night, Thompson hit a game-winning floater to knock off the Boston Celtics. That capped off a career-best night for the 21-year-old, who finished with 33 points and nine rebounds.
- Since joining the Houston Rockets starting lineup 10 games ago, Thompson has averaged 19.2 points and 11.5 rebounds.
- The Atlanta Hawks allow the fourth-most points and seventh-most rebounds per game.
It’s not that Atlanta’s defence is particularly poor, but the Hawks tend to play really, really fast. In a game that could turn into a track meet, Thompson looks like a strong pick to hit this over.
Picks made at 9:15 a.m. ET on 01/28/2025.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.