The Super Bowl is two weeks away … but that doesn’t mean it’s too early to make some bets.
The pregame narrative: Jalen Hurts scored a hat-trick of touchdowns in the NFC championship game and I love the value for him to find pay dirt again. I’ll also back the Philadelphia Eagles to cover and Samaje Perine to be effective in the passing game.
Check out my Super Bowl bets below.
Super Bowl bets
Go to full NFL playoff betting markets.
Best bet: Hurts anytime TD (-115)
Whatever you want to call it, the “Tush Push” or “Brotherly Shove” is inevitable.
Just ask the Washington Commanders. Hurts lined up under centre time and time again in the NFC championship game and faced no resistance en route to scoring three touchdowns.
Perhaps “no resistance” is inaccurate. Washington opted to jump offsides several times hoping to stop the play but was flagged and eventually warned that future penalties could result in a score.
Some fans reacted by calling for the play to be banned but that is ridiculous.
The Buffalo Bills struggled to execute the same play against the Kansas City Chiefs and were ultimately stopped with the game on the line.
Simply put, Hurts is better than anyone else at pulling this off.
He turned 19 attempts within the five-yard line into 11 touchdowns during the regular season and scored in two of three playoff games.
Kansas City’s defence is stout but Buffalo had multiple goal-to-go opportunities in the AFC championship. Philadelphia’s offence is firing on all cylinders and I expect Hurts’ number to be called more than once in the Big Game.
Key stat: Hurts has scored 33 rushing touchdowns in the last two seasons (regular season and playoffs).
Quick picks
Eagles +2 (-110): I’ll stick my neck out and back the Eagles to cover.
Philadelphia (14-3) might have had a slightly worse record than Kansas City (15-2) but it was the better team all season. Check out these stats courtesy of RBSDM.com:
- Philadelphia: Sixth in offensive EPA per play (+0.111), third in defensive EPA per play (-0.087)
- Kansas City: Ninth in offensive EPA per play (+0.071), 15th in defensive EPA per play (+0.006)
If those advance numbers don’t speak to you maybe these will.
Philadelphia is 13-7 ATS with a +10.5 average margin of victory. Kansas City is 9-10 ATS, winning by an average of 3.7 points.
Winning close games is a skill that the Chiefs have mastered. But how long can one team walk the tightrope?
The Eagles have more game-breakers on offence and their young defence is playing phenomenally under Vic Fangio. I may look like a fool for betting against Patrick Mahomes but it’s a risk I’m willing to take.
Perine over 6.5 receiving yards (-112): Kareem Hunt has led the Chiefs’ backfield with Isiah Pacheco and Perine splitting the remaining workload.
I’m essentially asking for one catch out of the veteran tailback here which isn’t much.
Perine caught one pass for 17 yards against the Bills in the AFC championship and cleared this mark in 15 of 17 regular season games.
Pacheco was out for most of those contests but Perine is a dynamic playmaker and I think Andy Reid will find a way to get him involved at least once.
Perine averaged 18.9 receiving yards in the regular season.
NFL picks made at 11:54 a.m. on 01/27/25.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.