My picks for the final league-phase matches in the Champions League feature two La Liga sides.
The pregame narrative: Barcelona has delivered plenty of high-scoring matches this season and I believe its clash against Atalanta will be no different. Also, back Atletico Madrid to win convincingly over inferior Austrian side Red Bull Salzburg on the road.
Check out the best Champions League predictions for Matchday 8.
Champions League predictions
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Best Bet: Barcelona/Atalanta over 3.5 goals (-104)
This matchup has all the makings of a thrilling spectacle.
Time and time again, Barcelona has consistently produced barnburners that bring viewers to the edge of their seats. And last week’s 5-4 victory at Benfica could be the “Match of the Year” when all is said and done.
The Catalans have arguably the best attacking squad in Europe.
Led by the dangerous trio of Robert Lewandowski, Lamine Yamal and Raphinha, Barcelona is averaging a league-best 2.8 goals in La Liga.
Manager Hansi Flick likes to play a high-pressing defensive line to quickly regain possession in forward areas. The big downside to this strategy is it leaves acres of space for opponents to create fast-break opportunities.
After being hammered by Benfica’s counterattack, Barcelona’s defenders now face a tougher challenge against Atalanta’s striking duo of Ademola Lookman and Mateo Retegui, who’ve combined for 33 goals in all competitions.
Under Gian Piero Gasperini, Atalanta utilizes a similar Gegenpressing tactic, with a 3-5-2 structure. Its attacking production in the Serie A has been impressive.
- 2nd in expected goals (1.71 per 90)
- 3rd in shots on goal (5.5 per 90)
- 2nd in big scoring chances (3.5 per 90)
- 2nd in final-third entry conversion rate
It has carried over to the bigger stage, with the Italian side posting the highest non-penalty xG figure (18.54) in the Champions League.
A loss would push Atalanta outside the Top 8, so it must rely heavily on its counter-pressing to stay level with Barcelona to secure a spot in the round of 16.
Key stat: This bet is 4-2 in Barcelona’s Champions League matches, which have averaged 5.28 goals.
Quick picks
Atletico Madrid -1.5 (+100): It shouldn’t be too much to ask a title-contending squad like Atletico Madrid to defeat an inferior side by multiple goals.
- Diego Simeone’s side is second in La Liga, sporting a 16-3-2 record, and four points back of Real Madrid.
- Atletico is also fifth in the Champions League, with 15 points and a 5-0-2 record.
- It is coming off an impressive 2-1 home win over reigning German champs Bayer Leverkusen last week.
Salzburg, 34th in the table with a woeful -19 goal differential, is playing solely for pride at this stage. And its six defeats in this competition have all been lopsided.
The domestic form doesn’t look inspiring, either. The Red Bulls are fifth in Austria’s Bundesliga, with a lacklustre 7-5-4 record and is 10 points behind leader Sturm Graz.
Atletico only needs a win to guarantee Round of 16 qualification, but I am expecting a beatdown here.
Picks made at 11:20 a.m. on 01/27/25.
