I’ve got three prop bets from Saturday’s massive 14-game NBA slate.
The pregame narrative: Nikola Jokic has somehow gotten better this season and I like him to do damage from 3-point land against the Minnesota Timberwolves. Elsewhere, back Jalen Brunson and fade Dyson Daniels.
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Best bet: Brunson over 26.5 points (-120)
Brunson is primed to torch the Sacramento Kings at MSG.
The point guard was just named as a starter in this year’s all-star game and it’s not hard to see why. Brunson is averaging 26.0 PPG (ninth-most in the NBA) and has been on a tear over the last 15 games:
- 28.5 PPG
- 48.3 FG%
- 30+ points six times
He’s coming off an underwhelming 17-point game against the Brooklyn Nets but scored 30-plus points in four of the five games prior.
I expect him to rebound against a Sacramento team which can’t defend the mid-range.
- The Kings allow opponents to shoot 44.6% from that area of the court, which ranks 26th in the NBA, per Cleaning the Glass.
- Brunson takes 50% of his shots in the mid-range, which is in the 95th percentile of all NBA players.
Brunson dropped 35 and 42 points in his last two games against the Kings.
Key stat: Brunson is averaging 31.7 PPG in his last six games.
Quick picks
Daniels under 16.5 points (-120): Daniels just dropped 22 points on the Raptors, who he’ll play again tonight, but I think he’s worth a fade.
Simply put, this number is too high. The rookie is having the best scoring month of his career (14.6 PPG) and is still falling under this mark more often than not (5-6 vs. a 15.5-point total).
Daniels rarely attempts threes and that’s the weakest area of the Raptors’ defence.
The guard is an active mid-range shooter though (35% of shots, 78th percentile) and Toronto owns the 12th-best mid-range defence.
I can’t see Daniels going off against the Raps again.
Jokic over 1.5 threes (+110): I don’t care how good Minnesota’s perimeter defence is — if Jokic is plus-money to can multiple threes, I’m on board.
The Serbian superstar is having a career season, which says something considering his resume. The three-time MVP is averaging 30.2 points, 13.4 rebounds, 10.1 assists and has been lights out from deep:
- Jokic is shooting 47.9% from beyond the arc, 8.3 points better than his previous high in 2017-18.
- He’s hit 2+ threes in 24/38 starts (63.1%).
Jokic has cleared this mark in back-to-back games and went 2-of-3 from deep against the Timberwolves earlier this season. Ideally, I’d like to see a little more volume than that tonight.
Picks made at 9:20 a.m. ET on 01/25/2025.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.