I’ve grabbed one NBA prop bet apiece from Friday night’s three-game slate.
The pregame narrative: LaMelo Ball shoots a lot, and he’ll face a weak opponent tonight … but I still think fading him is the right call. I also have selections on Tyrese Maxey and Zach Edey.
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Best bet: Ball under 31.5 points (-108)
Ball has the confidence and the shot volume to go nuclear on any given night.
But generally speaking, the stars would really have to align for me to bet him to clear a points prop this high. And I don’t view tonight’s matchup against the Portland Trail Blazers as that kind of situation.
- For one thing, Ball (wrist) is listed as questionable on the injury report.
- Tonight’s projected total for Blazers/Hornets is 220.5 points, which is the lowest total of the night. Both teams rank in the bottom half of the league in possessions per game.
- With or without Brandon Miller, Ball isn’t hitting this over very often.
Let’s go a bit deeper on that third point. With Miller (wrist) sidelined due to injury, Ball theoretically has more opportunities to shoot.
Then again, without Miller, it’s a lot easier for opposing defences to opt to double-team Ball. And his numbers reflect that:
- With Miller (20 games): 30.1 PPG, 24.9 FGA, 42.4 FG%
- Without Miller (9 games): 26.6 PPG, 21.9 FGA, 40.6 FG%
Portland is a bad team, but it can dedicate enough defensive resources to Ball to keep him under this lofty total.
Key stat: Ball has gone under 31.5 points in 18 of 29 games this year, including seven of nine without Miller.
Quick picks
Maxey over 28.5 points (-118): Maxey has consistently delivered for Philly and I like his chances tonight against the Cleveland Cavaliers.
With Joel Embiid operating in milk carton mode this year, Maxey has been left to pick up the slack most nights. And that’s exactly what he’s done — especially in January.
- Maxey has been the 76ers’ leading scorer in eight straight games, averaging 30.6 PPG in that span.
- Has exceeded 28.5 points in five straight games at home.
- Without Embiid, Maxey is averaging 27.8 PPG and has 30+ points in 9/25 games.
The Cavaliers haven’t defended primary ball handlers effectively, allowing 24.3 PPG to opposing points guards (21st), per Fantasy Pros.
In January, Maxey is averaging 27.6 PPG.
Edey over 7.5 rebounds (+100): This line used to be a cinch for Edey, but he’s seeing far fewer minutes right now than earlier in the year — and that’s been a problem.
Still, in the right matchup, I see some value in taking a flier on the ginormous Canadian rookie.
- Edey is averaging 7.2 rebounds this year.
- The New Orleans Pelicans (Edey’s opponent tonight) allow the most rebounds per game to opposing centres (17.4), per Betting Pros.
Keep in mind that Edey has gone under 7.5 rebounds in nine of his past 10 games. He’s also averaging just 17.8 minutes in that span despite starting nine of those matchups.
In 20 games before that, Edey averaged 8.0 rebounds in 21.9 minutes.
He had nine boards in his lone matchup against the Pelicans on Dec. 27, so hopefully the Memphis Grizzlies give him enough run tonight.
Picks made at 9:35 a.m. ET on 01/24/2025.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.