The Washington Commanders and Philadelphia Eagles clash for a third time this season, and on Sunday, a Super Bowl appearance is on the line.
The pregame narrative: Jayden Daniels has put together a historic rookie campaign and I don’t expect him to slow down now. Bank on a strong outing from Washington’s quarterback and buy low on a struggling A.J. Brown.
Check out my Commanders vs. Eagles prop picks for the NFC championship game on Jan. 26.
Commanders vs. Eagles prop picks
Go to full NFC championship betting markets.
Best bet: Daniels over 283.5 passing and rushing yards (-118)
Daniels was viewed as an elite prospect in last year’s draft but no one would have believed he could turn the franchise around this quickly.
After all, Washington went 3-14 last season and is now on the precipice of its first Super Bowl appearance in 33 years. It hasn’t been all Daniels, of course, but the rookie quarterback is without a doubt the biggest factor in the Commanders’ meteoric rise.
- Daniels threw for 3,568 passing yards and rushed for 891 yards in the regular season. That averages out to 262.29 passing/rushing yards per game.
- It’s worth noting he was partially rested in two of those games (Week 7 vs. Panthers, Week 18 vs. Cowboys).
- Daniels is 4-1 against this line in his last five full regular season games, averaging 314.8 total yards per game. One of those matchups was in Week 16 against Philadelphia (258 passing, 81 rushing).
And it doesn’t seem like playoff nerves are getting to the 24-year-old.
Daniels has cleared this mark in both playoff games and is coming off a 350-yard performance against the No. 1-seeded Detroit Lions.
Philly’s defence presents a much tougher task but this kid just seems different. Don’t be surprised if he punches Washington’s ticket to the Super Bowl.
Key stat: Daniels is 6-1 against this mark in his last seven full games.
Quick pick
Brown over 58.5 receiving yards (-118): You know something isn’t right when a star athlete is reading self-help books during the game.
Brown is dealing with a minor knee injury and has accrued just three catches for 24 yards in the playoffs. It’s been ugly — so why do I want to back him?
Great players find ways to perform when it matters most, and Brown is a great player.
Philly’s WR1 has put up 4,031 receiving yards across three seasons with the team, netting out to an average of 85.7 per game. I’ll side with that large body of work over this slump.
Brown cleared this line in both regular season meetings against the Commanders. In their last matchup on Dec. 22, he hauled in 8-of-15 targets for 97 yards.
If he can get even around half as many targets I like his chances of blowing by this total.
Philadelphia opted for a ground-heavy attack after taking an early lead against the Green Bay Packers in the wild-card round. In the divisional matchup against the Los Angeles Rams, Brown saw seven targets but struggled to haul them in during a blizzard.
Washington’s secondary has been sub-par all season and I expect Brown to snap out of it and have a field day against his divisional rival.
Picks made at 2:41 p.m. ET on 01/22/2025.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.