For the fourth time in five years, Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes are set to duel in the postseason.
The pregame narrative: Both quarterbacks have strong numbers in the previous head-to-head matchups, but Mahomes has dominated in the win column. I have a best bet for both superstar quarterbacks ahead of Sunday’s matchup in Kansas City.
Check out our Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes props, odds and predictions for Jan. 26.
Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes props
Allen props and best bet
Click linked odds to add selection to your betslip. Note: Lines have changed/market no longer available if grey.
| Allen prop markets | Betting odds |
| 225+ passing yards | -129 |
| 250+ passing yards | +150 |
| 50+ rushing yards | -105 |
| Over 20.5 completions | -104 |
| Over 31.5 pass attempts | -106 |
| Over 9.5 rush attempts | -108 |
| Over 281.5 passing/rushing yards | -113 |
| Under 281.5 passing/rushing yards | -115 |
| Over 0.5 interceptions | -118 |
| Anytime TD | -124 |
NFL odds as of 2:55 p.m. ET on 01/23/2024.
Best Bet: Allen over 20.5 completions (-104)
Allen was curiously under-utilized as a passer in the divisional round, but his efficiency didn’t suffer. He completed 16 of 22 passes (72.7%) against the Baltimore Ravens for a paltry 127 yards.
We’re going to need to see more passing volume for Allen to cash this bet, but I think that’s in order against Kansas City. The Chiefs are the favourites, and they allowed just 4.1 yards per rush this season (seventh-fewest in the NFL).
Buffalo couldn’t get the run game going against Kansas City during their Week 11 matchup this season. In that game, the Bills rushed for 104 yards on 31 attempts (3.4 YPC).
Allen, meanwhile, completed 27 of 40 passes for 262 yards.
Dating back to the 2022 postseason, Allen has now cashed this bet in five straight games against the Chiefs — averaging 26.0 completions in that span.
It’s true that Allen’s passing volume this season is the lowest of his career, but this just isn’t a huge total to clear. Especially given how sure-handed his receivers have been.
Bills receivers have a 3.3% drop rate this year, per Rotowire, which is the lowest rate of Allen’s career.
Mahomes props and best bet
| Mahomes prop markets | Betting odds |
| 250+ passing yards | -120 |
| 300+ passing yards | +300 |
| 30+ rushing yards | +120 |
| Over 24.5 completions | -103 |
| Over 36.5 pass attempts | -114 |
| Over 4.5 rush attempts | -106 |
| Over 280.5 passing/rushing yards | -114 |
| Under 280.5 passing/rushing yards | -114 |
| Over 0.5 interceptions | -106 |
| Anytime TD | +360 |
NFL odds as of 2:55 p.m. ET on 01/23/2024.
Best Bet: Mahomes over 4.5 rush attempts (-105)
Mahomes (ankle) popped up on the Chiefs’ injury report Wednesday, but that doesn’t worry me at all. He practiced in full on Wednesday and hasn’t let postseason ankle injuries deter him in the past.
Last weekend, Mahomes rushed seven times against the Texans. Two of those attempts were kneel-downs, but they all count the same.
- Mahomes has 6+ rush attempts in 5/6 playoff games since Super Bowl 57.
- In three postseason games against the Bills (all since January 2021), Mahomes has 18 total rush attempts and has cashed this bet each time.
Kneel-downs would be helpful for this bet, and it’s certainly possible Mahomes will have one or more of those on Sunday. But either way, Mahomes ups his scramble game in the playoffs and has been reliable against this number.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.