Two of the league’s hottest teams meet in Denver on Thursday when the Nuggets host the Sacramento Kings.
The pregame narrative: Doug Christie has Sacramento rolling and I’ll back the team as a sizeable road underdog, even on a back-to-back. Prop bets on Nikola Jokic and DeMar DeRozan round out this +300 SGP.
Check out my Kings vs. Nuggets same-game parlay predictions for Jan. 23.
Kings vs. Nuggets predictions
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Parlay: Kings +12.5 + DeRozan over 19.5 points + Jokic over 1.5 threes (+360)
Kings +12.5 (-225): The Kings erased an 18-point deficit on Wednesday to beat the Golden State Warriors, 123-117, marking their 10th win in 11 games.
Check out how Sacramento has performed since Christie took over as head coach on Dec. 27:
- 10-2 record
- 118.7 offensive rating (4th)
- 111.4 defensive rating (7th)
- +7.3 net rating (4th)
The Nuggets have been even better, however, ranking first in offensive rating (123.7) and third in net rating (+10.0) in the same span. But are they 12.5 points better? I don’t think so.
The Kings have covered this number in four of the last five meetings against the Nuggets, winning three games outright.
SGP legs
DeRozan over 19.5 points (-190): DeRozan has started 2025 off on the right foot, averaging 25.1 PPG with three 30-plus point games.
That comes on the heels of a middling December, where he averaged 18.4 points and didn’t crack 30 once.
It seems Christie has given the veteran the green light to shoot more, and that’s helped increase DeRozan’s scoring floor.
- December: 14.5 FGA/game, 20+ points in 5/13 games
- January: 20.1 FGA/game, 20+ points in 8/10 games
Denver has the league’s 17th-ranked mid-range defence (42.8%), per Cleaning the Glass. DeRozan takes 73% of his shots from that area of the court, which is in the 100th percentile for all NBA players.
Jokic over 1.5 threes (-106): Jokic has only cleared this line once in his last six games, which probably explains this favourable price point.
But on the whole, he’s been money against a 1.5 three-point line this season.
- 2+ threes in 23/37 starts
- 47.5 3PT%
Sacramento owns the fifth-worst perimeter defence in the League (37.5%) and I expect Jokic to be active from beyond the arc.
Picks made at 1:02 p.m. ET 01/23/2025
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.