From early afternoon through the night, I’ve got three NBA prop bets to cover Thursday’s action.
The pregame narrative: Victor Wembanyama is the headliner of today’s NBA matchup in France, and I expect him to put on a defensive masterclass for his countrymen. In the evening, look for Daniel Gafford to capitalize in a plus matchup and for Zach LaVine to rain 3s.
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Best bet: Gafford to record a double-double (+105)
For a second consecutive night, I’m targeting a starting centre in a favourable matchup against the Oklahoma City Thunder.
What makes OKC, the league’s No. 1 team, so favourable? It’s the lack of size brought on by injuries to Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein. Without them, the Thunder’s biggest player is 6-foot-8 forward Jaylin Williams.
Last night, Utah Jazz centre Walker Kessler took advantage of the size mismatch by putting up 17 points and 15 rebounds — far above his season averages.
Tonight, I think the 6-foot-10 Gafford can do similar damage.
Gafford has only re-entered the Dallas Mavericks’ starting lineup because of an injury to Dereck Lively. In four games since then, he’s put up excellent numbers:
- 20.0 PPG
- 11.3 RPG
- 76.2 FG%
- Three double-doubles
The catch is that Gafford’s only game in that stretch without a double-double came against the Thunder (eight points, six rebounds). But that’s because foul trouble restricted him to just 20 minutes of action.
Gafford has played 30-plus minutes in the three other recent starts, and a similar workload should be enough for him to cash this bet.
Key stat: OKC allows the third-most rebounds per game (46.4) in the NBA.
Quick picks
Wembanyama over 4.5 steals/blocks (-141): Thursday’s matchup for Wembanyama is more of a home game than any matchup he’s had in San Antonio, as his Spurs take on the Indiana Pacers in Paris.
Wemby’s prop markets are pretty juiced up for this 2 p.m. ET tip-off, but I’m willing to pay the price in his steals/blocks (i.e., “stocks”) market.
The heavy favourite to win Defensive Player of the Year is leading the league in blocks (4.0), and he also averages 1.1 steals per game.
Over his past 16 matchups, Wembanyama has cashed this bet 12 times while averaging 5.8 stocks.
Indiana plays at the eighth-fastest pace in the NBA (100.5 possessions/game). More possessions means more opportunities for Wemby to be a menace in front of the French faithful.
LaVine over 2.5 threes (-137): LaVine’s days with the Chicago Bulls could be numbered as the trade deadline looms. If a deal does happen, his talent as a 3-point shooter will be a key reason why.
The 11-year vet has always been a solid shooter from deep, but he’s found a new level this year. He’s averaging 3.2 makes on an NBA-high 45.0% shooting.
Coming off a 5-for-12 effort from beyond the arc on Monday (vs. the Clippers), LaVine has now cashed this bet in 19 of his past 28 games.
Tonight he’ll face the Golden State Warriors, who allow 3.1 threes per game to opposing small forwards (fifth-most in the NBA, per Betting Pros).
Picks made at 9:35 a.m. ET on 01/23/2025.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.