The marquee game of Matchday 23 features Manchester City hosting Chelsea on Saturday.
The pregame narrative: In this matchup between attacking powerhouses, I am taking an alt-total as the centrepiece of this +310 SGP. To round it off, I am playing props on Chelsea’s Cole Palmer and Noni Madueke.
Check out my Manchester City vs. Chelsea same-game parlay predictions for Jan. 25.
Man City vs. Chelsea predictions
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Parlay: Over 2.5 goals + Palmer to score or assist + Madueke over 1.5 shots (+310)
Over 2.5 goals (-225): City’s defensive woes in the absence of Rodri are well-documented.
They’re no longer an effective counter-pressing team and opposing attackers are finding more success dribbling and scoring from inside the 18-yard box.
Similar issues are affecting a Chelsea side which has failed to keep a clean sheet in five matches. And injuries to centre-backs Wesley Fofana and Axel Disasi only further weaken the backline.
Both are among the bottom-half defensive teams over the last 10 matches.
- Man City is averaging 1.70 xGA (13th)
- Chelsea is averaging 1.54 xGA (11th)
Pep Guardiola’s squad has returned to its elite attacking form, scoring 14 goals over the last four league matches.
Chelsea is coming off a dominating 3-1 win over Wolves on Monday. Despite missing key midfielder Enzo Fernandez to injury, it generated 3.2 expected goals on 19 shots.
Given the recent attacking form and defensive vulnerabilities, a high-scoring contest is likely in the cards.
SGP legs
Palmer to score or assist (-103): England’s fastest-rising star will be determined to inflict damage on his former club.
Guardiola persuaded Palmer to leave City in 2023 after refusing to include the youngster in his plans, which quickly backfired.
Since joining Chelsea, Palmer has emerged as one of the league’s best playmakers. The stats speak for themselves.
- Second-most goal contributions (14G, 6A) this season.
- Accounted for 45% of Chelsea’s goals.
- Leads the league in chances created (62).
Palmer is also on corners and penalty duties, which is a bonus to this prop. If the Blues get on the scoresheet, Palmer is likely to be involved.
Madueke over 1.5 shots (-165): Madueke’s exceptional pace and dribbling skills will be key to Chelsea’s success in this matchup.
The 22-year-old winger also serves as a secondary striker and has ripped a healthy number of shots in recent games.
- Madueke has 2+ shots in his last nine starts.
- Averaging 4.25 shots per 90, ranked 96th percentile among attackers.
He should fancy his chances against a City defence that has trouble containing speedy attackers. And given Madueke’s sizzling form, he should be featured in Enzo Maresca’s starting eleven.
Picks made at 9:01 a.m. on 1/23/25.
