One of the most epic Sundays of the NFL season is here, with the AFC and NFC conference championship games due up.
The latest: No one expected the Washington Commanders to be here, but now they get Act III against the Philadelphia Eagles with a Super Bowl berth on the line. In the AFC, the Kansas City Chiefs’ three-peat hopes are still alive — and so are the playoff demons the Buffalo Bills hope to exorcise.
Find out how our staff is betting on the action with our NFL conference championship ATS picks and predictions.
NFL conference championship ATS picks
NorthStar Bets’ Jordan Horrobin and Avery Perri offer up their NFL conference championship ATS picks for both games.
NFL odds as of 10:30 a.m. ET on Thursday, Jan. 23, 2024.
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NFL ATS picks: NFC championship
Commanders vs. Eagles (Sunday, Jan. 26: 3 p.m.)
NorthStar Bets line: Philadelphia -6
Horrobin says: I expected the Eagles to run over the Rams last week, and they did. But even with 285 yards on the ground, Philly barely snuck by with a 28-22 win — needing a red zone stop in the final minute to prevent disaster.
Washington’s defence might get run over, too. But Jayden Daniels and Co. have what it takes to punch back. The Commanders have three upset victories during their seven-game win streak, and both regular season matchups between these teams were decided by one score.
Pick: Commanders +6
Perri says: Washington blew out the NFC’s top-seeded Detroit Lions on the road while Philadelphia eked by the Los Angeles Rams in favourable weather conditions. I’ll happily bank six points with the Commanders, who have covered this number in six straight.
Daniels has been unstoppable over his last six full games, accounting for 18 touchdowns with just three turnovers (side note, the rookie hasn’t lost a fumble all season long). Jalen Hurts’ mobility will seemingly be limited with a knee injury, which should make Philly’s offence more one-dimensional. I like Washington to win outright.
Pick: Commanders +6
AFC championship picks
Bills vs. Chiefs (Sunday, Jan. 26: 6:30 p.m.)
NorthStar Bets line: Kansas City -2
Horrobin says: Picking the Chiefs hasn’t been this tough to justify in years, as they hold an 8-10 ATS record and have failed to exceed 31 points on offence in any game this year (Buffalo, meanwhile, averages 30.7 points/game). But if you’re willing to bet against Patrick Mahomes at Arrowhead, you’re bolder than me.
KC is 9-0 at home this year, covering or pushing this spread in eight of those games. Mahomes’ Chiefs are also 3-0 in the postseason against Josh Allen’s Bills. Buffalo went 5-4 on the road this year, failing to cover this number in each of those losses.
Pick: Chiefs -2
Perri says: Tony Romo was beside himself at how little Allen threw the ball in Buffalo’s win over the Baltimore Ravens last week. It ended up working out, just barely. I can’t see that game plan being successful again.
Steve Spagnuolo’s defence can stop the run and Buffalo’s largely unproven receiving corps is playing in a hostile environment. But this play is really about Mahomes. The alpha dog of this generation is 13-2 at Arrowhead in the playoffs and 3-0 against the Bills. How can I bet against that?
Pick: Chiefs -2
Regular season ATS records: Horrobin: 120-132-7 | Perri: 116-136-7
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