I’ve got two bets at plus-money odds for this weekend’s Premier League action.
The pregame narrative: Newcastle heads into Southampton off a humbling defeat, and I expect it to bounce back with a convincing victory. In addition, take the under in the contest between Bournemouth and Nottingham Forest.
Check out the best EPL Matchday 23 picks.
EPL Matchday 23 picks
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Best Bet: Newcastle -1.5 (+108)
Newcastle was humbled in front of its home supporters last weekend, suffering a 4-1 defeat to surging Bournemouth and seeing its winning streak end at six games.
Before that, the Magpies were the hottest club in the league, smashing the likes of Aston Villa, Manchester United and Arsenal in recent matches.
The dangerous attacking duo of Alexander Isak and Anthony Gordon is performing at peak levels, having combined for 11 goals over their last six games.
Eddie Howe’s side will need to regroup themselves for a shot at Champions League qualification, and it gets a perfect opportunity here.
Southampton (1-3-18) is sitting at the bottom of the table, with six points across 22 matches, and is destined for relegation.
The Saints didn’t reap the same benefits of a new manager bump as other Premier League clubs. They have a 0-1-5 record and a -10 goal differential since appointing Ivan Juric on Dec. 21.
Isak and Co. should wreak havoc against a struggling Southampton defence, ranked dead-last in various defensive metrics.
- 20th in expected goals allowed (2.39 per 90)
- 20th in shots on goal allowed (6.8 per 90)
- 20th in big-scoring chances conceded (4.5 per 90)
- 20th in final-third entry conversion rate (4.6%)
This is a nightmare spot for the Saints, coming off two gruelling defeats and facing a fuming Newcastle side.
The Magpies won the reverse fixture 1-0 while playing a man down for over an hour. I can easily see a 3-0 or 3-1 win for Newcastle on the road.
Key stat: Newcastle has won five of its last six matches by 2+ goals.
Quick pick
Bournemouth/Nottingham Forest under 2.5 (+108): Two of the biggest surprises from the Premiership clash in what should be a fascinating, yet low-scoring, contest.
Bournemouth pummeled a red-hot Newcastle side to a 4-1 victory last weekend. But much of the damage stemmed from its high-pressing defence, which forced Newcastle to commit an array of errors that led to scoring chances.
Nottingham Forest are an intelligent team that can absorb pressure in build-up play and take care of the ball. It has conceded the second-fewest errors that led to shots (nine), per The Analyst.
Aggressive attacking squads like Liverpool, Tottenham and Chelsea have combined for just two goals against it thus far.
The Tricky Trees often create their scoring chances from quick transitions. However, Bournemouth has limited opponents to just 12 fast-break shots, the second-fewest in the league.
Given the reverse fixture ended in a 1-1 draw, backing the under at plus-money odds is a value play.
Picks made at 11:25 a.m. on 01/22/25.
