The Australian Open semifinals are here and I have selections for a pair of matches.
The pregame narrative: Novak Djokovic and Alexander Zverev are no strangers to competing in Grand Slam semi-finals, and I believe their match will go the distance. Before that, I’m betting on Aryna Sabalenka to oust Paula Badosa in straight sets.
Check out my top Australian Open picks for the semifinals.
Australian Open picks
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Best Bet: Djokovic/Zverev over 40.5 games (-120)
Djokovic is proving age is no barrier, coming off an impressive four-set win over Carlos Alcaraz. His 91.5% win rate (97-9) at the Australian Open is extraordinary and he’s warranted a favourite in this one.
Entering his 12th semi-final appearance in Melbourne, Djokovic is not someone you want to fade right now.
His competitor is no slouch, either. Zverev is performing up to his No. 2 ranking by winning all but two of his sets en route to his ninth-career Grand Slam semi-final.
The German has one of the most effective and powerful serves on tour. In the last 52 weeks, Zverev ranks second in serve rating and third in service games won (89.8%).
While Djokovic is highly regarded as one of the best returners in the sport, he’s only won 21% of his return games in 2025.
This marks the 12th contest between the two, with Djokovic winning eight. The last Grand Slam showdown occurred at the 2021 US Open, where the Serbian triumphed in a five-set thriller (4-6, 6-2, 6-4, 4-6, 6-2).
I see another spectacle here. Djokovic and Zverev, both yet to play in a five-set match in this tournament, will have over 48 hours to recover and prepare.
Key stat: Djokovic (68.4%) and Zverev (72.5%) are both in the top 10 for break points saved on outdoor hard courts in the last 52 weeks.
Quick picks
Sabalenka -1.5 sets (-130): Sabalenka has dominated Badosa in previous matchups.
The top-ranked female has taken their last five head-to-head battles, with three of those wins coming in straight sets.
Having won 19 straight matches in Melbourne, Sabalenka is primed to capture her third straight Australian Open title.
Badosa comes off an upset victory over No. 3-ranked Coco Gauff (7-5, 6-4) but benefitted from 41 unforced errors, including six double faults.
While Badosa is a solid defender, she doesn’t possess the pace to keep up against big hitters like Sabalenka.
Last season, Sabalenka ranked seventh in service games won (78%). Meanwhile, Badosa finished 87th in return games won (36.9%).
Playing in her first Grand Slam semi-final, Badosa will need to perform at her very best to have any chance at pulling off another upset — but I don’t see that happening.
Australian Open picks made at 1:34 p.m. on 01/21/25
