I have plus-money picks on both men’s and women’s quarter-final matches of the Australian Open.
The pregame narrative: Elina Svitolina comes off an impressive fourth-round performance, and I believe is primed for an upset win over Madison Keys. Additionally, I like Jannik Sinner to defeat Alex De Minaur in straight sets.
Check out my top Australian Open picks for the quarterfinals.
Australian Open picks
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Best Bet: Svitolina to win (+160)
This promises to be a back-and-forth contest between two familiar foes, but I believe Svitolina at plus money is the play.
The No. 27-ranked Ukrainian carries plenty of big-match experience. She’s played in 11 Grand Slam quarterfinals — including three in Melbourne.
Svitolina found herself in a 4-1 deficit in the opening set against Veronika Kudermetova before winning 11 of the next 12 games.
Meanwhile, Keys was tested in all four matches leading up to this contest. She needed a third-set tiebreak to defeat non-ranked Elena-Gabriel Ruse in the second round.
The No. 14-ranked American has been temperamental in recent slams. And having logged 12 matches in the new term, her recent injury history is a worrying factor.
Although Svitolina has also been bothered by injuries. But, she came off a four-month absence to be fully fit for this tournament.
Encouraged by her husband’s (Gael Monfils) astonishing performances in the men’s circuit, I say Svitolina is more than capable of winning this contest.
Key stat: Svitolina posted a 16-9 record on outdoor hard courts last season, outperforming Keys’ 7-6 record.
Quick picks
Sinner -2.5 sets (+125): Sinner is making a solid case for back-to-back Australian Open titles.
The No. 1-ranked Italian battled through physical issues in the latest match against Holger Rune, which led to a dropped second set. Despite multiple stoppages, Sinner barreled through the next few sets to extend his win streak to 20 matches.
De Minaur qualified for the Aussie Open quarter-finals for the first time but faced a much easier path to get there.
A shocking 50 unforced errors from Alex Michelsen on Sunday mitigated De Minaur’s 43% first-serve percentage.
The 8th-ranked Australian has yet to figure Sinner out, losing all nine head-to-head matches via straight sets. He’s also failed to take a single set versus top-10 competitors (0-14).
Australian Open picks made at 11:34 a.m. on 01/20/25
