I’m backing a guard, a forward and a centre for Monday’s NBA prop bets.
The pregame narrative: In the afternoon, Trae Young’s plus-money value as a passer has my eye. Later on, I’m fading Trey Murphy III against the Utah Jazz and backing Nikola Vucevic against the Los Angeles Clippers.
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Best bet: Murphy under 3.5 threes (-143)
Unders are often not fun, and I’d say that sentiment applies here. But it makes sense to fade Murphy even in a matchup against the Jazz that seems exploitable.
- Murphy has gone under 3.5 threes in 18/27 games this season (66.7%).
- He’s never scored 4+ threes vs. Utah (incl. five games since December 2022).
Murphy averages 8.6 attempted 3s per game, which is the most among New Orleans Pelicans players. But at that volume, you’d still have to shoot above 45.0% to cash this bet.
Utah allows the third-most 3s per game, but that’s also because it allows the most attempts. From an efficiency standpoint, the Jazz hold opponents to the 11th-lowest 3PT% (35.7).
On any given night, Murphy could be the guy to heave 10-plus threes at the bucket. But CJ McCollum and Dejounte Murray are just as capable of being that guy, too.
In my view, the Pelicans have too many mouths to feed when all three M’s are healthy.
Murphy is a talented shooter, but his volume isn’t secure enough for me to want the over at this number.
Key stat: Against Utah on Friday, McCollum and Murray combined for 18 attempted threes while Murphy went 2-for-6 from deep.
Quick picks
Young over 10.5 assists (+108): I’ve made some hay recently by betting Young’s points prop, but I think Monday’s matchup against the New York Knicks is a good opportunity to pivot.
Young leads the NBA in assists this season (11.8/game) and has cashed this bet in 22 of 38 games.
Getting over 10.5 assists at plus money looks like a value to me — especially when you consider Young’s recent results against the Knicks.
In his past five games against New York, dating back to February 2023, Young has averaged 12.2 assists and hit this over four times.
Vucevic over 13.5 rebounds/assists (-108): The Clippers have the No. 2-ranked defensive rating (107.3), which seems like an explanation for why this line is lower than I’d expect.
Still, I don’t view strong defence as an inhibitor for a prop market like this (keep in mind that you need missed shots to grab rebounds).
Vucevic is rolling right now as a scorer, rebounder and passer. The Bulls should continue giving him big minutes and letting him do his thing.
Over his past 14 games, Vucevic has averaged 11.8 rebounds and 3.7 assists (15.5 RA), cashing this bet 11 times.
The Clippers allow the third-most assists per game to opposing centres (4.8), per Betting Pros, which should help. If Vucevic hovers around the 10-rebound mark, the over will be in play.
Picks made at 12:10 p.m. ET on 01/20/2025.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.