With the College Football Playoff national championship on the line, the Ohio State Buckeyes face the Notre Dame Fighting Irish on Monday night in Atlanta.
The pregame narrative: Ohio State has the more talented squad, and its dominance in the CFP gives me faith in backing the Buckeyes on an alt spread. This +500 SGP also has prop bets on TreVeyon Henderson, Jeremiyah Love and Riley Leonard.
Check out my Ohio State vs. Notre Dame same-game parlay predictions for the CFP national championship on Jan. 20.
Ohio State vs. Notre Dame predictions
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Parlay: Ohio State -3.5 + Henderson over 69.5 rush/rec. yards + Love over 49.5 rush/rec. yards + Leonard under 239.5 pass/rush yards (+500)
Ohio State -3.5 (-295): There was enough parity in college football this year that I’m not convinced we saw any all-time great teams.
But Ohio State is the closest thing to that — despite the inexplicable loss to unranked Michigan — and has utterly dominated in the CFP.
The Buckeyes have won six of their past seven games by at least two touchdowns. That includes all three playoff games (vs. Tennessee, Oregon and Texas).
According to gameonpaper.com, Ohio State ranks No. 1 in net EPA per play, yards per play and defensive success rate. Notre Dame is a worthy CFP finalist, but it can’t compete with that.
There are too many elite weapons in the Buckeyes’ offence for the Irish to stop. And Notre Dame’s typical advantages (coaching, offensive line play) are matched, if not exceeded, by OSU.
Other parlay picks
Henderson over 69.5 rushing/receiving yards (-230): Henderson had a game-altering play in the Cotton Bowl, when he turned what looked like a harmless screen pass into a 75-yard house call right before halftime.
He only had seven touches against Texas — his lowest total since non-conference play — but Henderson turned those into 117 scrimmage yards and a touchdown. His stellar CFP showing rolls on.
In three playoff games, Henderson has averaged 72.0 rush yards and hit the 20-yard receiving milestone all three times.
Notre Dame’s defence is built to stop the pass, and the unit ranks 90th in run success rate. There’s no reason to suspect Henderson to take his foot off the gas.
Love over 49.5 rushing/receiving yards (-124): For weeks, Love has battled a knee injury that I’m sure has made some bettors wary.
But he sure looked healthy while hurdling a defender in the Orange Bowl (something he said he wouldn’t do). And he had this will-not-be-denied TD scamper in the fourth quarter:
- On Saturday, Love told reporters he’s “ready to go” for the title game. He’s also been practicing without a brace.
- Love has averaged 90.2 scrimmage yards this season and cashed this bet in 13/15 games.
Leonard under 239.5 passing/rushing yards (-235): Leonard’s total yardage numbers haven’t been great down the stretch, and I can’t see that changing against the stout Ohio State defence.
In his final five games entering Monday, Leonard has averaged 163.4 passing yards and 45.0 rushing yards. He went under this total in four of those matchups.
Ohio State is a -455 moneyline favourite as of Monday morning and should control this game most of the way. Putting Leonard into obvious passing situations is exactly what the Irish don’t want.
The Buckeyes rank No. 3 in defensive EPA per pass, and they’ve tallied 16 sacks in three playoff games.
Leonard is a confident runner, but sacks count negatively against QB rush yards. No matter what he tries, I expect Ohio State to have an answer.
Picks made at 9:25 a.m. ET on 01/20/2025.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.